Another week where we went nowhere and yet had a decent down move as I had suspected based on the SPY open interest. Next week is Monthly OPEX and as you know those have much more staying power and rarely change throughout the week. Here we go: SPY: Currently best pin is at 210 and...
First, I want to thank you all for your patience while I was less active due to visiting my family in LA. As we now know in hindsight I really didn’t miss much and it probably kept me out of trouble. The market is still in a range and until then I think scraping money out...
Last week we didn’t get caught chasing the market knowing that the odds did not favor a breakout, but did favor a swift sell-off which is what ended up happening. The market is still not trending frustrating everyone. As I noted in the open interest, next week is offering a similar set-up although rare to...
Continues to be a directionless market making the open interest even more important for clues. SPY of course never got anywhere near 215 just as I had premised last weekend and we did indeed get a pretty gross sell-off (although wish I had been in IWM puts instead of SPY!) I said on Friday SPY...
Last week here I gave a few scenarios for next week with levels on SPY to guide you. Specifically, I said that if we gap higher or get above 208 then as long as that held, the bias was bullish. I also stated that, “Once again, the market is in a similar predicament in which […]
I had said last week that the way we closed was very similar to a couple weeks ago when we ended up going higher. We knew where support was and what to look for Monday morning to guide us. We gapped over all the puts and then monitored them all week giving us the clue that...
Once again we saw how the open interest was a great guide for SPY and the momo’s. Next week again is weekly expiration again, which means that the open interest is more susceptible to changes during the week. It’s also the last week for the major earnings releases. We had a couple great weekly trades and...
Pick an adjective, there are a plethora to choose from in the English language, but they all describe the market environment we are trading in. The bull isn’t winning, the bear isn’t winning, although premium sellers are likely winning. Last week here, I wrote that the likely scenario would be a choppy to lower start to […]
The open interest range on SPY held the entire week from Monday to Friday. On top of that, all those stocks that I said had interesting open interests with one strike carrying both the calls and the puts – well, they indeed ended up pinning with most of the damage done Friday. We are back...
Last week I said the market would likely be choppy do down at the start and that it was a buyable dip if support held. That turned out to be correct. Once we got above 210 I said that level would become support. I didn’t anticipate that we would get all the way back down...
Last week the SPY open interest told us everything we needed to know right from the start of the week. We got over the 207 level very quickly which was a tell that bulls had control unless that got breached. Once I was able to adapt to the bullish environment then my mind shifted and...
Tons of pinning last week. The open interest was super helpful to gauge our range and also got us into that huge LNKD winner. The open interest is also why I went out a bit further on TWTR and AAPL because the pinning was just too strong. Next week is the big monthly OPEX plus earnings...
If you missed my Benzinga radio interview, check it out here. Last week here my bias was more bearish; however, I clearly stated that if we got above SPY 207 then the downside would likely be limited. My caution to be ready for multiple scenarios was even quoted in MarketWatch Monday morning. That information proved to be […]
What an exhausting and yet boring week. Yet, in the end many of the open interest charts once again proved to show the range we would see very well (the quarterly and the weeklies). This is the second week in a row that I pretty much had to just sit on my hands because really there...
Another week of trend-less activity and from the futures action Friday things don’t look so pretty. Of course we have to take into context that futures were open 45 minutes and a lot of the move was very reactionary, but perhaps it’s the start of the washout I keep mentioning I’m looking for before a...
I will be live on Benzinga radio this Wednesday April 8th at 9:00 am. Last week here I wrote both about the potential for a rally at the start of the week with ‘window dressing’ and potential for quarter pinning. We got that rally. Then I gave a specific level to watch for to determine if the […]
Last week sure had a lot of pinning. The open interest was definitely very helpful in letting us know where stocks were very likely NOT going to go. Some of you even had some good shorts with stocks that got above their ranges. Good job on those! Last week was boring for the most part...
Gross week in the market. I’m very happy that I took a lot of profits on the swings a week earlier and that I didn’t chase anything once I saw 211 on SPY not being able to hold. I definitely didn’t see that sizable drop coming or I would have shorted, but at least I...
First, I just wanted to thank all of you that tuned into Fox Business during my appearance last Tuesday. I appreciate all the support I have received as the media is still very new to me. Here is a link in case you missed it. Second, I wanted to mention that I will be attending […]
Quad witching over, hooray! We are back to the weeklies which typically have larger changes as the week goes on. The good news is even if the market is choppy next week I see a lot of good opportunities with these momentum stocks. The open interest and the technicals have aligned well for next week and...
Last week was an AMAZING week for us. Not only did our short term trades work very well, but the swings we bought on dips paid off handsomely. That is the thing about this market. If you buy with good timing then you can sell when others are chasing. I would like to continue this great...
Monthly OPEX is upon us so expect less movement in the open interest as the week goes on because many of these puts and calls were bought over a long period of time. That also means that the likelihood of these stocks staying within their ranges or pinning is pretty good. What’s interesting about next...
Last week I had expected us to make a lower low, which we got. I also said that I was looking for a bottom within the next couple of weeks. It’s unclear if we have hit a secure bottom yet, but from the looks of it, if we haven’t there probably isn’t much lower to...
I was expecting some consolidation with a possible pull-back last week and we got both. I had mentioned that it would be better to buy dips than breakouts and that patience would likely be rewarded. The set-up for next week is going to be tricky as I do expect a bounce, but I also expect...
I mentioned last weekend that the set-up wasn’t as favorable for taking many trades and that patience was going to be key. As usual the open interest gave me many clues as to what kind of market we would be facing and it didn’t favor chasing breakouts or being too eager to buy dips. Next week...
The last few weeks we have been able to ride the trend well and find good opportunities among select stocks. Next week I believe is going to be more challenging because I don’t see good risk/reward for either the upside or downside. My bias is that we have more room to the downside then the upside next week,...
The last few weeks have been great with lots of good opportunities. Unfortunately, I think next week is going to offer less opportunity and might require a bit more patience and tactical trades. The market is near a spot that doesn’t offer much reward in either direction (more about that in the set-ups/commentary post). My...
Last week we again were on the correct side of the market. A couple paper-cuts early in the week were made up for with very profitable trades at end of the week. More and more stocks are looking good, which is bullish; however, often when that happens it’s time to prepare for a mild pull-back/consolidation....
Last week the open interest did a pretty good job of helping us determine ranges as well as breakouts (such as FB, TSLA) and which ones weren’t ready (such as GOOGL). Next week also has some good ranges and open interests that I think will lead to good trades in these momentum stocks. Lots of them below look...
After over two months of rangebound choppy action we finally made all time highs on Friday. Those that have fought the recent rally can list a plethora or reasons why the recent high is bearish; however, let there be no mistake that closing at highs is bullish as it has been in every other instance since […]
Monthly expiration is upon us which means the open interest will change less throughout the week and allow us the opportunity to see potential ranges as well as trade them. It also gives us insight into how strong the below momentum stocks are based on how they respond to high call areas that typically align with...
After over two months of rangebound choppy action we finally made all time highs on Friday. This is bullish, especially since it is being met with at or near highs on the other indices. Being bullish though doesn’t necessarily mean it is going to go higher next week as a consolidation period is often followed...
As I said last week I think the open interest has been very useful recently. Sometimes (for instance during trending slower markets) open interest helps, but is more difficult to interpret and play. With the pick up in volatility I am noticing the calls and puts as being much more informative and helpful. Also, as...
We had a good week playing the volatility last week and as of now it appears we had a false breakdown (Monday morning) and are now breaking to the upside. With the recent volatility and still no sold evidence that we will in fact trend higher I will again lay out several scenarios we can...
Last week here I wrote that I wouldn’t be surprised if we went below SPY 200 and then went on to test the other side of the recent range at 204. Both did in fact take place before the market then went on to break the wedge that many market participants have had their eyes on. The […]
After last week I haven’t read much except for bearish implications. I too have already discussed that in my posts, particularly the one titled An Intermittent Bottom Perhaps, but Swing Bottom in Question, posted on January 19th. I still do not think the bottom is in; however, I also don’t think there won’t be some shake-outs […]
With all the increased volatility I’m seeing larger strikes on both sides. This is a positive for us because it helps define ranges better and based on how this week plays out (whether we start down or start up) I will use the open interest ranges to find good trades. I noticed that the last...
This market is definitely making things very challenging. In my view that is a good thing because I strive off challenges and this market is certainly providing opportunities if you can be on the right side of them. I have only a couple of set-ups only because my main focus is going to be on...
In last weeks post I talked about a probable bounce, but a new high being in question. We got the bounce and so the obvious question becomes do we see a 2013/2014 move to new highs now or are we putting in a lower high and continuing back into correction zone? With the Greek election outcome, a […]
This could be a really fun week with earnings and potential run up to earnings. All the ones that have earnings I will post but without comment since earnings can and probably will change them. After earnings I will comment on them regarding what might happen next. I also will likely play weeklies next week. For...
So we got the bounce and of course the big question now is will it take us to new highs or has it now trapped many longs? With the Greek elections not going in the markets favor there is a chance for a gap down tonight/tomorrow. As usual, we are not going to know how...
As I mentioned in my post One Big Game of F***ery on Thursday, I think a lot of the price action last week had to do with January expiration. Given that it was a monthly expiration and the first one of the year it had quite a large amount of open calls and puts that when being closed or […]
Last week was completely crazy and as I said all week it was one big vacuum of premium. Basically the entire week just seemed to revolve around pinning. Obviously more was at work than that, but it would be hard to deny that options played a HUGE role. Anyway, we did end up going lower...
Now that the monthly January OPEX is over, the pinning will again become a little more muted so the ranges will be more flexible and we can hopefully get better movement in the market. SPY: This one is interesting and I am going to show you two different views. The first one shows where we...
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There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
Well well well, not the most fantastic start to the new year. This market is in a very difficult spot as the overall trend is still bullish, seasonality is bullish, selling has not been strong (as seen by the breadth levels), volume has been especially low BUT price action has been very poor the last...
The momentum stocks aren’t acting very well lately. Not only that but they aren’t giving much opportunity because although they aren’t giving large upside moves, they aren’t giving large downside moves either. They are for the most part in no-mans land and hopefully with the new year and portfolio’s readjusting we can see which ones...
Happy New Year! The last trading day of holiday trading (a long two weeks, but always a needed break to reset). I will once again go over the updates for all the open interest charts for tomorrows expiration for those of you trading intra-day during this week and need a refresher. I don’t even have hopium...
2015 is about to be upon us!!! Given that not a whole lot changed last week my stance remains the same as last week. The trend is up and I am bullish overall. Regarding just next week though, I am neutral in the sense that some chop and consolidation is definitely a possibility and would...
First time writing expiration for 2015!!! Beginning of the new year, new money coming in, new types of challenges and new ways to make $$$$$$. I have mentioned this once before, but with the popularity of options increasing I am noticing weekly options and pinning has been changing a bit. I can’t conclude anything yet, but...
Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays! I hope you guys are all taking time off and not trading much. I promise the markets will be there later with many opportunities. Try to enjoy time off when wall street is off and trading volume is pretty negligent. I am updated all of the open interest for those...
The bottom line is the trend is up. Next week is a shortened week and typically a bullish one. I looked at last years open interest charts and how each stock did during this week. (Note, this by no means is an indication of what will happen this year, but I thought it would at...
Simply stated the trend is up. Last week I wrote that my bias was for a bottom to be put in Wednesday and we got that exact thing. I am bullish for next week as you are aware and am holding IWM calls for a swing trade and looking for a breakout. The only thing I don’t...
Following seasonality almost perfectly the market fell out of bed last week. It has gotten pretty oversold on several measures, but could still get more oversold especially with everyone looking for the bounce. As of right now I still do believe we rally into the new year. What gets me a bit nervous is that...
Next week is monthly expiration so there is more calls and puts on each side that can push stocks around. VIX also expires on Wednesday morning. This month is one of the first in a very long time that there are more puts then calls so it seems people didn’t buy protection which probably exacerbated the sell...
The market is still very tight and rangebound with a more upside bias. It hasn’t done much over the last few weeks except for slowly creep up with tiny pull-backs not really letting anyone in. There is no saying how long that will continue. Seasonally next week tends to be the weakest in December (the...
With the momo names not doing very well lately I don’t see much edge with most of these below. My favorites right now are FB and GS to the long side. If some of the others can start to pick up next week then it would be really constructive since most of them are no in...
Friday didn’t end on a high note and didn’t ramp into the close. Those are things that warrant our attention, but unless we see any follow through next week then path of least resistance is higher. Below I have set-ups mostly to the long side except for one. As promised I am going to give...
SPY: For right now the range is 204 to 208. I don’t want to make predictions on what next week will look like cause although some of Friday’s action seems indicative of the rally being long in the tooth, it’s hard to make much about holiday trading. We need to see some downside follow through...
Thanksgiving is next week and speaking strictly from a seasonality viewpoint it tends to be bullish. Volume will be light so we could see some big swings in stocks. Note that if you buy weekly options you should probably try not to hold them after Wednesday (unless as a lotto) because the market is closed...
Next week is light with the market closed on Thursday and only a half day on Friday. Thanksgiving week also tends to be positive so there could be some good moves in stocks with light volume pushing them all over the place….also means you should be quick to take profits on winners. Having said that...
At the heart of technical analysis is the so-called “trend.” You can simplify the market trend into three categories: up, down, and sideways. They can further be categorized by time: primary – months or years secondary/intermediate – weeks or months short-term – days intraday – minutes or hours The trend length of interest is determined […]
Here we are again pretty much in the same place we were last week and the week before….sitting at all time highs after a massive run and chopping sideways. This again is considered bullish; however that doesn’t mean it’s bullish in terms of next week or the next few days. When we think of next...
For market commentary, open interest and intra-day/week set-ups, check out a subscription. Last week I admitted my surprise at the V-shaped recovery, but disclosed that I had drank the Kool-Aid and saw the recent move as bullish with more upside ahead. That was the correct call and we indeed made new highs. I pointed out mid-week on Twitter that […]
Open interest is a unique way of looking at things when trading that most people don’t utilize not knowing how beneficial it really is. It sometimes can help make trades, but what is underrated is its ability to prevent you from taking trades when you know the risk/reward isn’t in your favor (like this last...
We are in a very tricky spot in the market right now. We reached all time highs and after a huge V-shape recovery and spent most of last week digesting the move. As I mentioned last week, over the last two years the 2 weeks after making highs from a V-shape recovery tend to be...
For market commentary, open interest on momo stocks, and intra-day/week set-ups, check out a subscription. A couple weekends ago, I suggested that we had likely saw the end to V-shaped bottoms. I could not have been more wrong in that presumption; however, was quickly able to adapt as I mentioned last week in my SassyMusings […]
Well as I stated already, I was wrong about no V-bottom. We got the biggest V-bottom of all. As I mentioned mid-week in SassyMusings and in one of my morning updates I may be drinking the kool-aid, but I think this rally still has room to run. The reasons I am in this camp is I still...
SPY: My bias is for rangebound chop to higher next week (also see GS with regard to overall market). A pull-back is part of rangebound chop so if we get a pull-back the first place to look for support is 198. If that doesn’t hold 196 is the next good support. AAPL: Has room to...
Ok so my Rest In Peace V-bottom post a couple weekends ago was obviously a horrible title. The message within it was so far* pretty off in that I expected a drop back to the lows or lower lows after a decent size bounce. I certainly did not expect the bounce to take place so […]
There is no telling what Janet will say or how the market will take it. What I will say is that after looking at lots of charts it does seem like this move can and likely will go higher. Many charts look like they are ready for big breakouts, breadth is expanding, SPX made a...
Let’s be honest here, this market is completely bi-polar and for the most part crushing people. Taking a step back a few weeks ago to trade very short term was a brilliant move in hindsight. In fact, these past few weeks have been a great trading environment for anyone who was able to adapt and not...
There are a lot of earnings coming out next week so most of these I think we will need to reassess after they report. SPY: For right now this appears bullish with 195 as support. My current bias is it will stay above 195 till at least Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. If it loses 195...
GM everyone. I am fairly surprised to not see us lower upon the Ebola news last night. I will say that I really don’t see much edge going in to today. We have had a really great weak and the last thing I want to do is give back some profits before my weekend. I...
GM – what a week it has been and it’s only Wednesday morning! Going back to my weekend write-up this was the move I was leaning to (albeit I did not expect it to happen in 4 days as u can see below). In both those scenarios I am looking for a target of first...
GM – Futures up nicely this morning. Not only does this not phase me, but I was hoping for this scenario. As I said over the weekend I would like to see us rally the first part of the week so that we can look for opportunities to fade. Now I’m sure you are asking,...
In last weeks post, Destruction!!! What’s Next??? I noted that the V-bottoms we knew and have become accustomed to over the last two years might have been coming to an end. I also noted that there was strong evidence we would see a bounce, but that the bottom was likely not in. I clearly laid out […]
Overall I see a lot of opportunity with these open interest charts; however they all have to meet certain conditions. I have notes on them all, but the main premise is we want to get a strong market bounce next week so that price gets over many of these high calls. Then we want to...
There is no doubt that this market is really tricky right now and there is no telling where it’s going to go. To say that a bottom is in I think is currently premature. We got very oversold and relieved much of that with the bounce on Thursday and Friday; however the strength behind the...
GM – As of now things are looking great for the open. For the most part we were very patient this week and then getting long and holding it overnight was a good choice. I am going to outline a few open interest charts that I think can provide opportunities for you day traders. I...
As I have been pointing out the conditions are definitely in place for a rally minus a TRIN over 2. In the last two years not every condition to bounce had to be met, which is more proof that this time is different (as if you didn’t already know). A TRIN reading over 2 would...
GM- I figured this would be easier than posting a million things on TWTR. So here is the deal. We are no doubt oversold. This is not a secret and pretty much everyone knows that, which I feel is the danger in catching a bounce. However, I see nothing compelling right now about shorting. This...
When trying to think of a title for this post, really the only word that came to mind was “destruction.” Although the market had already been going through stages of destruction for weeks, seen by looking further back at the Russel 2000, the energy sector, or even just how many individual stocks have been failing to […]
Last week was no doubt tough, but I felt that we actually managed pretty well. Definitely took some losses, but luckily made them up with some nice gains elsewhere. I am not in a rush to start putting swings on so next week I am going to look to play bounces and then see if there...
SPY: I am going to show you one look of the SPY open interest here and then a different look in the set-ups section for reasons you can read there. In terms of this look it’s not very telling except if we can bounce hard than we can try to anticipate a move back to...
If you haven’t had a chance to read my overall picture then read it here. Basically, I don’t feel confident that we definitely put in a good low just yet and am waiting for a few more signals. In the meantime there are really great long set-ups so if that was the low these set-ups...
Here’s the thing about these shallow V-shaped pullbacks hallmark of our market since the end of 2012 – everyone knows that they won’t last. As we potentially approach the eleventh straight vertical rally from a shallow pullback, the anticipation for the one that finally fails is once again heightened. I too fall victim to this anticipation and find […]
Looking at the overall open interest there really is no overall theme that can help clarify if we are indeed ready to take the market vertically higher or put in another low. Note: I am skipping PCLN as it has not been of much use recently. I will bring it back when and if it gains...
The Big Move Is…..
Last week I was out of town and posted the SPY open interest on my twitter stating that it looked similar to the week prior and worth a read (which is here). The main take away was that any rally would likely be sold and a swift sell-off was a good probability. That indeed happened as Monday […]
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