Last week was pretty rocky and in the end the market is back in the range it’s been stuck in for a while. The important thing is on a closing basis that SPX 2420’ish level held. We now have a new intraday reference of 2405 to go by as well. Next week is a shortened...
Once again SPX basically did nothing all week, but we were able to find some really great movers. For now rotation continues to keep this market alive and until that changes there is no reason to fight the trend. Breadth: SPX stocks at 20-day highs: There is currently nothing telling here. Not oversold or overbought. ...
SPX held that zone around 2418-2421 last week and until that gets taken out, the short term trend remains rangebound to up. Of course that level can be taken out in a gap down, but that’s never an easy thing to anticipate with perfect timing. Last week I think was a fairly challenging trading week with...
The SPX closed down a bit on the week, but the real drama was of course Friday with the Nasdaq taking a beating. Overall we had a great week and Friday was a good reminder of why we always take some profits off the table when we have them. I’m mentioning that because I think it’s...
What a great week! That dip that filled the gap was spot on. SPX made an all time closing high and likely still has higher to. Let’s get into what things look like for next week. Breadth: SPX stocks at 20-day highs: Lots more participation and inching closer to the level where the market typically has topped out. With that...
Last week I said that SPX would likely be slow and rangebound till at least after Wednesday’s expiration, but that the grind higher was more likely than a drop lower. SPX finally made a new high by more than one tick and is currently holding that new high well. That doesn’t necessarily mean things are off to the...
Last week was by no means easy to navigate, but we timed it pretty much as well as anyone could. I’m pretty sure not many people were selling longs on Tuesday and putting on a hedge (that ended up being a real nice winner). Anyway, the good news is that we might begin to see some...
Despite that SPX barely moved last week, we definitely had some pretty good opportunities to take advantage of. Next week is monthly OPEX so most of the open interest won’t shift much. There really isn’t much to say about SPX right now as it remains rangebound. Although two Friday’s ago it seemed to have closed over...
Despite that SPX didn’t really go anywhere last week, we had some decent opportunities in individual stocks. In the short term there is nothing new to say. The bulls still have the upper hand, and SPX is likely to make new highs next week. With that said, there is risk of a large gap down due...
Last week was great for bulls (if of course they participated in the gap ups, which luckily we did). Other than the gaps it really was a very slow week. There isn’t a whole lot to interpret right now regarding the overall market. It is in a bullish trend and has been consolidating last weeks...
Last week there was no post, but in previous posts, both at the end of March and the beginning of April (see here) I continued to suggest that SPX would likely get to old highs or make new ones before a more meaningful correction took place. That has now been achieved as SPX went within 2 […]
The best thing we did last week was not over trade. Looking back at last week, the opportunities with options were slim after the initial bounce early in the week. The IWM calls we bought were at a very good location, but unfortunately Friday turned into a pin day and there wasn’t any follow through yet....
Last week I discussed why the market would likely continue to stay in a range. Based on the open interest I did think that there was a bit more upside than downside, but as the open interest shifted during the week the range just became tighter and without bias. In the end bears took the baton....
We started the week with some great sells and then remained cautious getting too long because of what I described last week regarding the open interest. That served us very well on Wednesday when the market and many momentum stocks looked as if they were ready to go higher. I remember when tweeting that I...
Last week here I summed things up with: “Currently, the market is near or already oversold and likely to bounce soon if that has not already begun late Friday. Should price immediately go lower it will become even more oversold and not a place to initiate shorts.” Furthermore, I discussed that the open interest suggested that the […]
In last weekends post I wrote about the market being oversold and discussed all the SPY open interest put support. That gave us an edge coming into the last weeks Monday morning gap down and we were able to have a solid week. The new quarter starts Monday and there is likely money that will flow into...
Last weekend my main idea was that the market would be slow and rangebound and patience would be our main motive. Admittedly, I did not see the drop on Tuesday coming; however, it was indeed slow and rangebound except for those few hours. The market is currently still in limbo and it is unclear yet how...
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post....
For the most part last week was more consolidation for SPX. It made a marginal higher low and then closed about five points higher than last week. It was a good week for trading and now that OPEX is over there will be less pinning to worry about. With that said, keep in mind that in...
I came into last week fully expecting things to be slow and rangebound till the Friday jobs number. I didn’t expect SPX to stay mostly at the bottom of the range, but it did stay in the range I projected. I was hoping for more out of Friday, but at this point I think the...
Although we made new highs last week we did not close near those highs Friday, which is a bit of a change in character. It’s too early to say that this current bull run is over, but for the first time in a while I think we are seeing cracks. In general I do believe...
After a gap up and then a couple days of consolidation, SPX once again made an all time closing high. The gap down Friday morning definitely led to some questions about the sustainability of the current bull run. I discussed two scenarios regarding that morning and fairly early on we figured out that the gap down was...
Last week here I stated “there is no reason not to expect another new high to be made as the edge continues to reside with the bulls.” That worked out nicely and I am now making a similar statement regarding next week. There is one wild card that can derail the bull run (namely Trump addressing Congress […]
New highs again after closing at new highs last Friday. Last weekend I was cautious about what came next, but as I said then and will reiterate, the bulls still have the edge and until there is some evidence with price to doubt that, we continue to play the long side. The end of the...
Two weeks ago here I discussed the likelihood of news highs. That indeed came the following week and then continued on into last week. At this point there is no reason not to expect another new high to be made as the edge continues to reside with the bulls. Open Interest: I have pointed out […]
Closing out at all time highs in QQQ’s and SPX is obviously bullish. Furthermore, there was actually follow through from Thursday which is something that we haven’t seen for a while. For now the trend is up and whether there are warning signs or not, until the trend is violated by price there is no...
Last week here I went into length about reasons to be concerned with the long side (especially for last week because of the open interest), but pointed out that the overall trend remained bullish. I also described two separate breadth studies that concluded a pullback would likely be short-lived. In the end a gap down Monday morning […]
Last week I discussed reasons to expect downside. Unfortunately it happened in a gap down, which limited our opportunities. Still the week turned out ok because we stayed on the right side and didn’t start thinking bearish. Throughout the week I showed that the bullish trend remained intact each day at the close and now...
Last week here the title of my post said it all: The Trend Still Supports Bulls as Does the Open Interest. The roughly month in a half range finally broke to the upside and at the present moment bulls clearly have the edge. With that said, there are some concerns going into next week that could jeopardize […]
Finally the range broke and I’m grateful to have been on the correct side of that. Since the range break on Wednesday SPX has traded sideways and thus, at the moment bulls are in control. With that said, there are some things you will read below that are of concern to bulls heading into next week...
Last week here I conveyed that the path of least resistance was higher and explained why what looked like the best pin of 220 on SPY was unlikely to happen (refer back to read understand why). During the week I updated the open interest over twitter which further supported that price would likely stay above 225. (“interest” […]
There is nothing new to say that hasn’t been said for several weeks now. As long as SPX remains in a range the short term is neutral and the longer term still supports a bullish trend. Breadth: SPX stocks at 20-day highs: Nothing to see here. No new market highs so we don’t need this...
Last week here I didn’t have much insight based on the open interest and instead just described the market as showing no evidence of being bearish. During the week the open interest changed and I posted updates over twitter that were indeed helpful, especially Wednesday’s. Wednesday morning I showed there was a large 226 put strike […]
Since 2017 began we have gotten a decent amount of intraday volatility and I believe that will likely continue over the next couple weeks as Trump is inaugurated and then begins to lay out details of his future policies. Next week is monthly OPEX so most of the open interest will not change much throughout the week. Breadth:...
Happy New Year and happy all time highs! So far 2017 has begun with a bang and the major indexes are at all time highs (or close to them). Simply put this is bullish. About a month ago I showed a study related to 52 week highs minus lows shown below. Two weeks ago here I described […]
After a couple months of very little follow through, 2017 finally gave some real good opportunities (so far). Great week to the start of the year with SPX and QQQ’s closing at all time highs. The best part about the current market is that it continues to stay relatively uncorrelated to the indexes. Should this...
Happy New Year! 2016, a year that predominately traded in in the same range that 2015 traded in, proved polls are useless, and did the opposite of what everyone anticipated for each major event. In the end though, SPX was finally able to move outside of its two year long range, which at the very least...
I had expected a slow week as I wrote about last weekend, but my expectations were exceeded. Completely dead all week. I don’t anticipate next week will be the same (at least not the first couple of days) but it doesn’t mean we will get tons of movement either so we need to also be...
Last week here I summarized my post with: “the most likely outcome is another few days to weak of tight rangebound consolidation that may (but doesn’t have to) include further minor (but buyable) weakness followed by strength.” The rangebound part happened and I will lay out where my thinking was regarding “the followed by strength,” and why […]
Last week was fairly slow especially after considering all the catalysts from FOMC to the tech meeting with Trump. In the end SPX closed 4 points lower than last Friday’s close. The weekly candle itself isn’t very pretty, but the fact that SPX held at the very top of last weeks candle is a positive. At this...
It’s been a while since I’ve done a post. Most of you know I was traveling through SouthEast Asia (an amazing trip) and then right when I got back had to head to Los Angeles because of my grandfather’s passing (sad yes, but at least he lived to 90). Thanks for all the comments via […]
As some of you know I have begun tracking when SPY pins on Wednesday and Friday. I began tracking Wednesdays since its inception and Fridays a bit after that. This next part is important – I am not defining pinning as the perfect pin. I am defining it in my own way that gives a range […]
There has been a relentless bid under the market and as much as everything seems extended and it’s tempting to short, the evidence doesn’t suggest we are currently at a top. That doesn’t mean there won’t be down days or pullbacks, but it means any shorts taken are going to be more difficult without great...
I am back and it’s kind of funny to see that SPX pretty much is in the same spot as when I left. Of course I know lots happened in between and not everything is in the same spot. Most markedly, the financials, which had a huge move higher and many tech names that have underperformed....
Hey guys! Hope everyone is doing well. As I mentioned I will post the open interest, but for this week (which will be made up for at the end of your subscription) I am just posting the open interest without commentary. Kind of looks like a week that wants to steal your premium at the...
Looking over closing prices last week proved once again why open interest can be extremely helpful. It tends to be underestimated because it may not always help you make a trade for profits (although often it does); however, more often than not it can prevent you from making a trade that would have lost you money. Reviewing...
The best thing I wrote last week was: “I know the consensus is a rally if Hillary wins and sell-off if Trump wins, but I’m not even going to pretend anyone actually knows. I have no idea who will win, if a true winner will even be announced by Tuesday night, and how the market...
Last week here I discussed that the environment still looked more favorable to selling rips then buying dips, but that the election was a wild card. I went further to say that if there was a large rally to watch the overall breadth to determine the strength of the rally and if it would likely continue […]
Last week here I continued to provide evidence in support of the bearish case and suggested to sell all rallies. That worked every day last week as every rally failed. So where are we now? Below I will present the facts of breadth and the open interest with the caveat that the election is next week […]
After weeks and weeks of continuing to be weary of rallies and thinking a down move was coming, we finally got some follow through. I obviously closed my swing IWM and SPY puts too soon – but thats what happens when the market trains you that follow through doesn’t exist. Next week is the election and...
Last weekend I took off and keeping this short because there really isn’t anything new to say, but here we go. The theme is sell rallies. Since the market has not been able to break we should all be open to the possibility of improvements underneath the surface, especially since we are entering a seasonly […]
The market (SPX) continues to trade in the same range despite bears getting closer and closer to breaking it down. There hasn’t been much holding it up and that continues to be the case, but thus far rotation among just a few stocks keeps it propped up. As I said before, it’s possible the market...
This was originally published form subscribers on 10/22/16 It’s groundhog day all over again. At the moment nothing has really changed. The market is still in a waiting period and it’s definitely doing a good job of breeding complacency. I want to point that out because I don’t want to get stuck in that mind-set. […]
It’s groundhog day all over again. At the moment nothing has really changed. The market is still in a waiting period and it’s definitely doing a good job of breeding complacency. I want to point that out because I don’t want to get stuck in that mind-set. For now, yes nothing is happening and the...
Another week of really choppy action; however, the range has been broken and as I’ve been expecting, to the downside. Next week is monthly OPEX and October tends to have one of the most bullish OPEX weeks. With that said, most historical stats and correlations have gone out the window this year. However, there is...
Last week here I discussed having to be neutral due to the impenetrable range, but described myself as having a bearish lean due to many red flags that I outlined in the post. I also discussed the SPY 212 area that had both a lot of put support and technical support. The range finally did break, but […]
A double entendre, other words for unyielding according to theasauas.com are adamant, merciless, relentless, unrelenting, etc. (See more than just a finance blog) Last week here I discussed cracks in the market that were keeping me bearish, but with an open mind due to the improvements in breadth. In the end, the market kept flat and […]
There isn’t really a whole lot I can say about the overall market. It seems no matter what breadth looks like, what the bond markets do, what the currency markets do, what commodities do, SPX closes roughly at the same place every day. Thus, until that changes we have to just try to find individual...
If you missed my interview with the Futures Radio Show, please check it out here, where Anthony and I discuss options, psychology, and current markets. Last week here I discussed a more bearish thesis looking out a couple weeks with the idea to sell into rips. I also pointed out that due to the end […]
As you know I went into the week bearish, but with the understanding that it was possible the market would hold up into the quarter end. For most of the week SPX was down, but in only fell below 2150 for a brief period of time and unfortunately rallied back at the end of the...
In case you missed it, I had the privilege of being a guest to Anthony Crudele’s futures radio show. Tune in here. Last week here I went through reasons why I did not think the lows were in, but highlighted that the market will often rally into and after the FOMC meeting. My thoughts were […]
I really can’t remember the last time I had such a variety of short and long trades and many working at the same time. It’s more proof that the market is not being carried by the majority of stocks and I still do believe the bottom is not in. Next week is quarter end and...
Last week here I wrote that the bottom was unlikely in and that for the time being bounces should be sold. The market did go lower, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it bottomed. Regarding bounces being sold, that worked, but buying dips would have worked just as well. It was a choppy week and on […]
It seems that volatility is finally back. Quad witching, which tends to bring some volatility with it, is over, but there is still the Fed meeting on Wednesday. At this point and on a very short term basis (a few days) I am leaning bullish. However, looking out further, I think this market has not...
Last week here (and for several weeks) I discussed some breadth divergences that are unfortunately not a timing tool, but a caution sign. More importantly I discussed the risks of so many expirations and analysed both the Wednesday and Friday SPY expiration. Wednesday (the first ever SPY Wednesday expiration) did not disappoint and pinned almost perfectly. Friday on […]
Finally some movement. Or actually, some HUGE movement very similar to what I was talking about all week over and over again. At the start of the week I mentioned that it was the weak before quad witching and that historically, it brings weakness around it either before or after. That coupled with my reluctance to get too long...
Another week goes by and another week where SPX closed in range. Next week is a four day week and likely the start to more trading volume and hopefully, but not necessarily, some range expansion. For the most part its very hard to make the case for bulls or bears on a short time horizon. Longer...
Last week I was taking in the last bit of summer so let’s get right into next week. Breadth: The two potential themes I am seeing are 1) some signs that could be considered the market being short term oversold and 2) some caution signs of underneath deterioration. A quick recovery of breadth and expansion likely […]
Another relatively benign week until Friday which saw more intra-day movement than we have seen for a while. SPX still managed to close within the range it has remained in since the jobs number, but just by one tick. In the end though it is still in its range for now. With that said the...
Last week here I had little to say except that SPY would very likely not close over 220 and that as long as SPY remained above 217, it would be difficult to make a bearish case. The low last week was 217.02, the high 219.50. Perfect range for any short term bulls and bears to go crazy […]
What a dreadfully slow OPEX week. Now that it’s over I think things will get better (meaning more movement), but let’s not forget that there are two weeks left of summer. This is a big travel time and thus not the time to be getting into big positions. For the next two weeks I think...
Last week here I summed things up with: In sum: The market strength on Friday is likely to lead to new highs being made; however be aware at the limitations the current breakout has in the near term. Should SPX fall before making a higher high next week, technical support levels will likely be quickly […]
Given how unbelievably slow the market was, we did pretty good. Nothing huge, but we have to trade the market we are given. Importantly we stayed out of trouble by not chasing some of the momo’s that had high call strikes. Next week is monthly OPEX and so the open interest will likely not change...
Last week here I said that there was likely a new high coming, but that gains would likely be limited to 218 SPY. I also said that if SPY dips below 215, it was likely be a buy. There was a new high, there was a pullback below 215 that turned out to be a […]
The last week was very similar to the one before where overall the market was up and it looked like there was easy money, but we know that minus Monday and Friday it was all chop. BIIB was HUGE and lucky. Those don’t come around that often, but don’t worry I am always on the...
Last week in a post titled Reasonable Expectations I wrote: In sum, I wish I had something more impressive to say, but I’m not going to spend time trying to find something that makes me sound smart. The upside seems limited, but trying to time a short without a signal isn’t attractive. Thus for short term traders, […]
It’s been a very long consolidation and the movement on the indexes has been slow and choppy, but we have had some good gems so no complaints. The market finally made a new high after working off overbought conditions through time. Does that give us the all clear? I’m going to say no and likely any...
Last week here I wrote that the longer term trend was higher, but that there would likely be a pause, chop, and a grinding lower. I was right about all of it except that latter part as there really wasn’t much grinding lower. In fact BEFD (Buy Every F’N Dip) has not let up at […]
Last week the theme was patience and although I wasn’t expecting new highs, that patience is what helped us be profitable. There was a lot of chop during the week and if we had piled into weekly long options those options would have been eaten by premium. Think about this, the high two Friday’s ago was...
The last two weeks I made it pretty clear to Buy Every F’n Dip (BEFD). Unfortunately for those not well positioned there wasn’t much of a dip to take advantage of. Here is last weeks post. The easy part (for the time being) is likely over. Looking out several weeks though, the market looks set […]
Awesome week. We rode the wave and got out many of our positions just in time. As I had explained, when things are working too well it’s time to tighten up while things are good, even if things still look very bullish. At this point I am still bullish looking out a few weeks; however,...
This was originally published form subscribers on 7/9/16 The premise for last week was that we had to be patient and pick our spots carefully and not expect huge gains even though I was bullish. Most of the week was choppy and as I had said hard to make money with options. Friday was obviously […]
Last week here I made it pretty clear that my premise was to buy every dip. I actually didn’t think the market would pullback as much as it did, but for those that were buying it was a gift. Next week is monthly OPEX and at the moment SPX has nothing to contend with except […]
The premise for last week was that we had to be patient and pick our spots carefully and not expect huge gains even though I was bullish. Most of the week was choppy and as I had said hard to make money with options. Friday was obviously a different story and even surpassed the 212...
Last week here I discussed that the market had lower to go, but was in a good position to begin looking for signs of a swing long. First, I admittedly had no idea that swing would come Monday. I highlighted that the market was short term oversold and likely had a bounce coming, but a swing […]
What an amazing buying opportunity Monday was. Unbelievable move. And how crazy was that quarterly pinning?!? Based on how the rest of the week went, I think it’s more probable that we see new highs before we see Monday’s low breached. Having said that, the market has been in a range for about 2 years...
Over the weekend I posted that there was a good probability of the market going lower before finding a bottom. I’m still not sure if we hit a cycle bottom, but based on the quarterly index open interest and 20-day lows, the risk/reward for a bounce was too good to pass up. As a reminder here […]
I’m back. Thanks for all the congratulatory comments while I was away. This will be a short to the point. For much more relevant information take the premium plunge. If you recall a month or two ago I repeatedly wrote in my posts that the market never reached an oversold reading that is typical of […]
Bullish Open Interest Wednesday, But Less so For Qtr/Month End
I’ve been on vacation for a bit, but I just got back so here is a very quick post for next week. Open Interest: SPY-W: (33 of 41 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* This open interest is more bullish and currently suggests a pin of 234 to 244. With that said, there is very little call resistance […]
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