We have a very indecisive market right now and I’m staying light with my trades. Throughout the week I stated stocks that I took or am currently in. This is not an exhaustive list of everything I am holding, but I thought I would update the trades I highlighted in my previous posts in SassyMusings […]
Looks like a drone shot down AMZN; however, how many times have we seen that dip bought off of the conference call or by next day dip hunters? GOOG basically not doing anything for now. CMG, which ironically had the most bearish sentiment (via StockTwits), is flying high. Was the 4% correction enough? I don’t know, but […]
The Fed cut 10 billion as expected. Guess we have to rely on the economy now. Good news is good, bad is bad? Everyone sees and is waiting for the head and shoulders to play out right? Ok got it. Was just making sure. My ludicrous call from Monday night was a failure….we breached the […]
ES Futures are throwing a sucker punch to the bears tonight after Turkey announces overnight rate hikes to 12% up 4.25%. This could spur other countries to make similar moves which helps curb investor fears. Read here. Ichan saved AAPL from falling into the depths of hell today. Perhaps on his next date with Cook he […]
Ichan is currently playing darts with Tim Cook’s head. Doug finally got something right with his AAPL call (so far) and has been possessed by the gloating monster. Cat rose over 6% today and is trying to mind f$#k us by getting us to believe China isn’t THAT bad. Biotechs (IBB) fell to levels we […]
The following is the open interest for expiration Friday January 31st. The implied volatility and priced in movement is based on the weekly options. Monday AAPL: IV: 55.5%, Pricing in +/- $30.50 Wednesday FB: IV: 107.5%, Pricing in +/- $5.92 Thursday AMZN: IV: 70.33%, Pricing in +/- $27.46 CMG: IV: 81.3%, Pricing in +/- $40.34 GOOG: IV: 60.8%, Pricing […]
The combination of sentiment and momentum divergences finally mattered supporting the current pullback taking place. I don’t think there is anyone that would argue we weren’t in dire need of a reset regardless of how unpleasant it may be. Considering the current backdrop of liquidity, it seems pre-mature to start preparing for a major correction. For […]
Well last week wasn’t very fun. Despite my joking around on twitter Friday, I was not having a good day. I got stopped out of some positions and most of the ones I was able to hold onto lost value. Overall a crap day for my account; but hey it’s part of the game right? […]
IBM reports earnings on Tuesday, January 21st. The stocks has fallen after the last three reports. Implied volatility is lower than it was for the previous two quarters implying a + or – move of $7.81. For next week, the implied volatility is at 44.6% pricing in a + or – move of $8.30. This […]
Below is the open interest for stocks that expire on Friday January 24th. As always, if you are going to use this information, it should be used in conjunction with your other technical analysis and I don’t advise you to trade solely based off these graphs or my notes. If you are looking for open […]
NFLX reports earnings on Wednesday, January 22. Going back two years this is the lowest implied volatility has been right before earnings pricing in + or – $33. Breaking it down a little further to just next week, the IV is at 106.5% and the measured move is + or – $35.15. NFLX closed Friday […]
This is an ‘A’ set-up for me. On the daily chart it is just breaking out from a long consolidation period. On the weekly chart (below) you will see a volume pocket just above. Typically when a stock gets into a volume pocket it will quickly filly it. Earnings on Feb 12th. This is easy […]
The market has been range bound since the start of 2014. So what does that tell you? Is the market consolidating through time and setting up for higher prices? Is the market churning as funds try to disguise their selling which will result in a breakdown? I don’t know. What comes to mind though is […]
Last weekend I wrote this about the overall market: My bias is leaning toward a breakdown before a breakout. Having said that, if we do get a correction, I think it will be very minor consisting of about 2-3% or roughly between 1785 and the low 1800′s. From Friday’s close to the low on […]
The following are the open interest for expiration on January 18th for some of the major banks reporting earnings next week. The implied volatility and what the options market is currently pricing in are taken from Think or Swim. Tuesday: JPM: IV: 29.5% Market pricing in +/- $1.71 WFC: IV: 25.6% Market pricing in +/- $1.74 […]
So which is it? We going to breakout or breakdown? We have been trading in a very tight range and it’s really anyone’s guess as to whether we breakout or breakdown. SPX has been consolidating very close to the highs and breadth has been confirming strength in the overall market. Having said that, I’m going […]
Yes, it has felt like we have been due for a pull-back. And yes, it has felt like we have been extended for a long time. That is precisely why we don’t trade based on our feelings. So far the indexes haven’t pulled back much and in the meantime many stocks have been […]
Looking over my profits from last year, my largest came from swing trades that ranged from about three weeks to a month in a half. This year I am going to focus more on those type of trades because I think they will continue to do well this year. I personally believe that overall we […]
Note: I actually have no affiliation with the creator, but thought it was ironic that I found this and then noticed we share the same name 🙂 Let’s make 2014 a great and prosperous year!!! Happy New Year to all my followers. General Market Update There isn’t much to say. I stated over the weekend […]
I bet I got some bears excited with that title. What I mean is 2013 is over, not the bull market. Jan 3rd expiration is now in the forefront. From Thursday evening (12/26): Anyone who has been following me this year knows that I have been a huge bull, so those words coming from me […]
Hope everyone is having a nice holiday. Here is your updated open interest for expiration this Friday. SPY: Staying over 181 I think gives SPY much more upside potential. If falls below 181 then good chances of a 180 – 181 pin. AAPL: Oddly, the 560 calls didn’t close out on Tuesday. The […]
Tapering and Revised 4.1% GDP Estimate. Stick That up Your…. What a wild week! Hopefully you were prepared with a plan. My plan was outlined for your viewing last week: “My take is that if we get more downside next week it will be early on leading up to the the Fed meeting, but that the […]
On Thursday evening of last week (December 19th), I posted this regarding SPY’s open interest along with the graph below: This conversation followed: SPY closed Friday at 181.56. I thought this would be a good time to try to explain when a large strike could become a magnet for a stock or ETF. I’m going […]
Have you been naughty or nice? After a year of constant jokes and criticism do you think Ben – oops, I mean Santa is going to shower us with money through the likes of AMZN, GOOG, FB, TWTR, NFLX, TSLA and all stocks that begin with any letter from A to Z? Or is he […]
CHOP CHOP CHOP The Week That Was: My wrap-up regarding last week can be viewed by the above image. Moving Onto Next Week: So now what? Well your guess is as good as mine. Longer term, things still look great. All we have done is gone sideways after a very large move that began in […]
Too many bulls going too far too fast? 1. Is sentiment getting a bit frothy? Yes2. From a historical perspective, is eight straight up weeks in SPX getting a bit extended? Yes3. Are we going to get a correction sometime in December? My psychic is on vacation this week so will have to get back […]
Here is an update of the four indexes I mentioned in my blog over the weekend. The SPX has basically done nothing, but is holding onto recent gains extremely well. The financials (XLF) and the biotechs (IBB) have also gone sideways as some of the momentum names take pause to consolidate last weeks gains. The […]
“Until we have evidence of a shift taking place in this market, continue to do what is working: buy dips, sell on the way up, rinse and repeat.” That is taken from last weeks blog and since it is still valid it ‘bears’ repeating. Now you may ask, but how do I know which dip […]
Stop Over-thinking:I tend to be an over-thinker and I have learned that over-thinking the markets doesn’t work for my P&L. If you can relate to this let me say it as simply as I can….GET OUT OF YOUR HEAD! Until we have evidence of a shift taking place in this market continue to do what […]
If you want to survive as a trader you need to be able to adapt to market conditions. What has 2013 taught us? Dips are fast, feel harsh, and are short lived. If you have not adapted to that yet, then you are behind the curve. If you have adapted to that then one of […]
Heading into the end of the year dips will be shallow and will be bought. I have noticed more people becoming bearish or cautious recently. For me, the latter makes more sense. I think last week was very constructive, but does warrant a bit more caution. Having said that, I’m not seeing evidence yet of […]
The following open interest graphs are for today’s expiration. SPY: Lot’s of puts at 174 and 174.5. If we have a down day look for that area to prop it up. AAPL: Call buyers got killed again. Shocker. AMZN: Tight range, but considering it’s recent strength and it being above 360 could run if market […]
The following is the open interest for Monday morning including their current priced in move (what the options market has priced in for both directions). Percentage is the current implied volatility. Information taken from ThinkorSwim. Monday AAPL – currently pricing in $33.72 (64.2%) Tuesday BIDU – currently pricing in $16.10 (100.8%) LNKD – currently pricing […]
This market has been relentless and challenging our nature to think it can’t keep going without a substantial pull-back. However, as I said last week, until we see some type of evidence (i.e. outside day, close below previous days low, close below major support, etc.) then there is no reason not to believe the trend […]
Last week was very impressive. Not only did we close at all time highs, but we had an impressive amount of stocks reaching new highs coupled with heavy accumulation days confirming the recent rally. If you recall from a while ago I had a target of 1746. We got to 1745.31. Does that mean I […]
Fun times this week. Although I did not expect to get down to 1640, I did say that if 1670 breaks to step out of the way. I was traveling last week and less available, but hopefully you got this tweet on Wednesday morning. That was also a good place to go long. In hindsight […]
Each week I will do my best to highlight open interest and implied moves for certain popular stocks. If I don’t get to the stock you are in, I apologize. I only have so much time to dedicate to this so I’m going to try to pick the ones that seem to garner the most […]
I am lucky that I happen to be traveling this week and had less exposure to the markets today. The exposure I did have I got stopped out of. We broke 1670 and for me that means risk off. Although it seems enticing to buy the dip, I wouldn’t be in such a hurry this […]
So far our government has not let down our expectations of being useless and as a result a choppy week ensued. Last week I wrote that, “If we do trade down, we have support around 1683 [SPX] and if we drop even further, I still believe 1670 will hold.” So far 1670 on SPX has […]
Last weekend I wrote “Next week there are plenty of reasons to support the idea that we will pull back or at least hang out and consolidate.” I should have just taken the week off because there wasn’t a whole lot going on. I did book my TLT profits, but I believe that trade is […]
Well now that the big Fed decision is out of the way, we can all focus our attention on the budget crises ;-). We have come a long way from the August lows in a pretty short amount of time. September has been a great month for those that bought the dip. If you missed […]
Did Bernanke make a mistake by not tapering? I don’t know and frankly it’s not my job to try to figure it out. My job is to trade what is in front of me and I think I am going to get to experience a mini dot com bubble. Perhaps it won’t be as epic, […]
Last week I outlined some levels I thought we may reach. SPX exceeded those expectations to close at 1687.99 up 2%. Headed into this week my thesis will be of caution. After riding the market up from 1630, it’s much more difficult to stay long with size. That is not to say I will be […]
SPX finished last week up 1.4%. Last weeks range was 1633.41 which happened on Tuesday to Friday’s high of 1664.83. All week we made higher highs and higher lows. I still believe that the correction is mostly over and if your time frame is longer than a week, I would even call the pullback from […]
Last week I wrote that I thought SPX would stay range bound between 1645 and 1685. I was wrong. Like most people, I don’t like to be wrong, but what’s more important than being wrong is how I deal with it. My approach was not to get upset or to blame the markets, Syria, Obama, […]
Despite the title, this post is not going to be a complete bash of the Dow Theory, but it did come up recently due to the controversial call made by Ralph Acampora, which can be found here. What I will be discussing is different ways to gauge the market, a little about Dow Theory, and […]
The sell-off that commenced on Thursday (8/15/13) seemed to take people by surprise, including myself. It wasn’t necessarily that we had a down day that was surprising, but that we so easily broke SPX 1675 support to end the day at 1661 or 166.38 on SPY. Furthermore, any attempt at a bounce during the session […]
So as not to fill your stream with tons of open interest this Sunday (don’t know if I will do it every week), I am combining the high beta open interest charts here. I will update SOME of them on twitter/stocktwits throughout the week. I don’t know which ones I will continue to update and […]
I saw this tweet earlier by Ryan Detrick regarding the put to call ratio. Here is the chart he posted (which can also be found here http://stocktwits.com/message/14247255) The put/call ratio is often used to gauge investor sentiment; however, when it gets to extreme levels (as it is now), many traders view it as a […]
Last Week: Last week was all chop, which hopefully you had already anticipated. We are still range bound and hopefully we will come to some resolution after Big Ben speaks on Wednesday. Be careful that day though, the first move could be a false move. Until we breach 1597 or take out 1650, keep things […]
Before I begin, I just want to give a shout out to @traderstewie (who btw is a must follow if you aren’t already following him) for giving me the idea to change my blog name, which then motivated me to change my twitter handle (@Sassy_SPY) to something easier to remember and more fun :-). And […]
Well interesting week to say the least. If you have been following my tweets all week, then you know there was heavy 164 SPY puts being bought on Tuesday. In hindsight, they were very early, but by the end of the day Friday, they went into the money. Although, oddly enough they actually didn’t profit […]
I have received a couple of questions regarding my tweets last week since it was the first time in a while I had directed caution based on what I was seeing in the SPY options market. I decided to write about it for anyone that wants to know my thought process going into last week. […]
I personally like to look at the options market (particularly open interest) to help me find ranges for pinning on expiration days. Just like technical analysis nothing is guaranteed, but I find it to be useful as a tool to use in conjunction with other tools (especially for trading options through different strategies). I also […]
A peek through Lulu – An anecdotal, fundamental and technical look. Is LULU truly transparent or are they actually diverging investors’ attention from their dwindling assetts. Annecdotal Lululemon was one of my first stock purchases. I bought it before I knew what PE meant, before I knew that technical analysis existed, and before I […]
Here is a look at the January 2014 open interest of some of our high flyers along with a few of 2012’s best performing sectors. Take a look at where people think these stocks/ETF’s are going over the next year. AAPL Highest call: 600 Total calls: 370,104 Highest put: 500 Total puts: 176,249 […]
Nobody wants to pay higher taxes, but since it’s likely inevitable, might as well look for a way to profit. I’m mostly a technical trader, but that doesn’t mean I ignore fundamentals or a good thesis for a stock to move higher. Below you will find some fundamental reasons, my own thesis, and technical reasons […]
As a former psychologist, market sentiment (a lot of which I can sense through twitter) is one of the things that I consider when making trades. Recently those of us that trade the charts haven’t had strong conviction as to whether to be long or short. Many of us have stayed in cash or made […]
I’m going to save us both time by not rehashing the excitement, or lack of, today’s highly anticipated earnings releases. The real excitement came earlier this week with GOOG’s bombshell. Although today was an anomaly in that both AAPL and AMZN didn’t provide huge movements in the stock once it settled down after hours, what […]
October Expiration – Open Interest Ranges GOOG, AAPL, PCLN October expiration is coming and here is a look at three popular high beta stocks that often pin within there open interest range. Monthlies are more popular than weeklies so the numbers are much higher. Keep in mind that many people probably bought these calls and […]
Last week I wrote here about taking Thursday’s open interest and using it to help you find a range to trade Fridays stock action. The point was to see how well pinning worked using open interest. This week I decided to start a little earlier and begin looking at the range in OI after Monday. […]
The Open Interest AAPL, GOOG, & SPY Over the weekendI wrote a post here about weekly option expiration and pinning using open interest. Here are three different charts to look at for this weeks weekly expiration. I chose high flyers AAPL and GOOG due to their popularity and SPY to see if it can help […]
Open Interest Updates for Jan 31st Expiration
Updated open interest for tomorrow. If one you wanted is not on this list, my apologies. Sometimes life just works that way…. SPY: AAPL: AMZN: BIDU: CMG: FB: GOOG: NFLX: TSLA: TWTR:
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