Last week here I mentioned the positives and negatives demonstrating that there was better chances of a bounce early in the week due to seasonality, oversold conditions, and the VIX expiration on Wednesday morning. I posted the open interest to show that the upside could be limited by the high calls at 206. The week pretty much followed that script and given next week will also be very light perhaps it follows the VIX and SPY expiration script again?
If so here is what you need to know:
VIX Expiration: Note, since weeklies are still fairly new I have limited experience to go by, but thus far it has been pretty reliable. The VIX closed at 15.74 and near the high strike at 15. Furthermore, the current best pin is 17 so there could be some market downside early next week lifting the VIX until Wednesday morning when it expires. 
SPY Open Interest: This currently has the best pin of 205 with resistance at pretty much every strike all the way to 208 and then 210. Any rally above 205 may have difficulty suistaing itself. To the downside, there is put support from 202 to 204, but not as much as the main put support at 200. That is obviously also a big technical level of support. If the market should pull-back early in the week and the open interest should stay the same, there may be good potential for a rally into the expiration on Thursday. Of course, there may be some bigger than expected moves due to funds rebalancing their portfolio’s into the end of the year, but no way to predict wild cards, just to know they exist. 
I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year and thank you for all the support of my posts throughout the year. I appreciate my audience or I wouldn’t take the time to write these each weekend.
For daily analysis and real time trade alerts and some sassy fun consider starting your year premium style.
A Year to Forget & Probably a Week to Forget as Well
Last week here I mentioned the positives and negatives demonstrating that there was better chances of a bounce early in the week due to seasonality, oversold conditions, and the VIX expiration on Wednesday morning. I posted the open interest to show that the upside could be limited by the high calls at 206. The week pretty much followed that script and given next week will also be very light perhaps it follows the VIX and SPY expiration script again?
If so here is what you need to know:
VIX Expiration: Note, since weeklies are still fairly new I have limited experience to go by, but thus far it has been pretty reliable. The VIX closed at 15.74 and near the high strike at 15. Furthermore, the current best pin is 17 so there could be some market downside early next week lifting the VIX until Wednesday morning when it expires.
SPY Open Interest: This currently has the best pin of 205 with resistance at pretty much every strike all the way to 208 and then 210. Any rally above 205 may have difficulty suistaing itself. To the downside, there is put support from 202 to 204, but not as much as the main put support at 200. That is obviously also a big technical level of support. If the market should pull-back early in the week and the open interest should stay the same, there may be good potential for a rally into the expiration on Thursday. Of course, there may be some bigger than expected moves due to funds rebalancing their portfolio’s into the end of the year, but no way to predict wild cards, just to know they exist.
I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year and thank you for all the support of my posts throughout the year. I appreciate my audience or I wouldn’t take the time to write these each weekend.
For daily analysis and real time trade alerts and some sassy fun consider starting your year premium style.
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