Ok so it’s not exactly like 2013 as the first half of the year was nothing short of a trap to anyone who stayed in the 2013 mentality. However, as I posted about three weeks ago, the environment was sure presenting evidence that we were going to get that type of surge. 
I said it a few weeks ago and I will say it again, I had been on the wrong when the surge began. I got hurt because of it so I am not claiming to be a know-it-all. However, I adjusted quickly and not only recovered those losses, but have added gains just by being open to what was taking place in the present and not what I thought “should” happen. If you haven’t read my piece, This time IS different, I encourage you to. If you have, add to the list unprecedented negative interest rates by the ECB.
Are we overbought? Yes, and on many time frames measures. One of my favorite overbought measurements is the percent of issues above the 50-day MA. 
Is the VIX “due” for a spike? Historically speaking, yes. Is this seasonally a weak part of the year? Yes. Does that mean it’s time to short? Sure if you think you can time a pull-back. I for one can’t. (Once again I encourage you to read This Time IS Different).
The lasts few weeks have felt very similar to 2013. Recall that people were in disbelief. We heard but we have already gone up so much, but we have divergences everywhere, it’s a bubble. What we learned is the market can keep grinding sideways to higher or only suffer minor pullbacks crushing shorts and leaving those on the sidelines subject to chase. Will this happen again in the following weeks to come? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t rule it out and I certainly wouldn’t short until I saw price action that warranted a shift. Even then I may not short and instead wait for buying opportunities as we are currently in a buy the dip environment.
Another scenario that I’m not hearing much about is the possibility of a shift from the S&P and DJA outperformance to the Russel, Nasdaq, and financials. How crazy would it be if the S&P began to pullback or even correct while the other indexes continues to catch a bid?
In sum, the trend is pointing up. I am not clairvoyant enough to know when that will shift so I will continue to go with what’s working. As I said last week I am not focused much on the indexes, but more so on individual sectors and stocks. The market as a whole may be overbought, but there are still many stocks that have plenty of room to move higher. Last week here I listed several stocks that might breakout and most of them did. Here I will outline some more for next week that could trigger long. If you are looking for more guidance on how to trade them, I encourage you to check out a subscription.
Stocks to watch: Some are momentum plays, some longer term swings that slowly grind higher.
BIIB, REGN, MA, V, JPM, BIDU, VIPS, WDC, GMCR, ALXN, DAL, GIS, K, MJN, DPS, WIN.
Here are a couple set-ups with their charts. 
Go Kings!
If you are looking for more ideas, as well as commentary, open interest, and set-ups on all the high beta (more fun) stocks consider subscribing.
2013 Déjà Vu
Ok so it’s not exactly like 2013 as the first half of the year was nothing short of a trap to anyone who stayed in the 2013 mentality. However, as I posted about three weeks ago, the environment was sure presenting evidence that we were going to get that type of surge.
I said it a few weeks ago and I will say it again, I had been on the wrong when the surge began. I got hurt because of it so I am not claiming to be a know-it-all. However, I adjusted quickly and not only recovered those losses, but have added gains just by being open to what was taking place in the present and not what I thought “should” happen. If you haven’t read my piece, This time IS different, I encourage you to. If you have, add to the list unprecedented negative interest rates by the ECB.
Is the VIX “due” for a spike? Historically speaking, yes. Is this seasonally a weak part of the year? Yes. Does that mean it’s time to short? Sure if you think you can time a pull-back. I for one can’t. (Once again I encourage you to read This Time IS Different).
Are we overbought? Yes, and on many time frames measures. One of my favorite overbought measurements is the percent of issues above the 50-day MA.
The lasts few weeks have felt very similar to 2013. Recall that people were in disbelief. We heard but we have already gone up so much, but we have divergences everywhere, it’s a bubble. What we learned is the market can keep grinding sideways to higher or only suffer minor pullbacks crushing shorts and leaving those on the sidelines subject to chase. Will this happen again in the following weeks to come? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t rule it out and I certainly wouldn’t short until I saw price action that warranted a shift. Even then I may not short and instead wait for buying opportunities as we are currently in a buy the dip environment.
Another scenario that I’m not hearing much about is the possibility of a shift from the S&P and DJA outperformance to the Russel, Nasdaq, and financials. How crazy would it be if the S&P began to pullback or even correct while the other indexes continues to catch a bid?
In sum, the trend is pointing up. I am not clairvoyant enough to know when that will shift so I will continue to go with what’s working. As I said last week I am not focused much on the indexes, but more so on individual sectors and stocks. The market as a whole may be overbought, but there are still many stocks that have plenty of room to move higher. Last week here I listed several stocks that might breakout and most of them did. Here I will outline some more for next week that could trigger long. If you are looking for more guidance on how to trade them, I encourage you to check out a subscription.
Stocks to watch: Some are momentum plays, some longer term swings that slowly grind higher.
BIIB, REGN, MA, V, JPM, BIDU, VIPS, WDC, GMCR, ALXN, DAL, GIS, K, MJN, DPS, WIN.
Here are a couple set-ups with their charts.
Go Kings!
If you are looking for more ideas, as well as commentary, open interest, and set-ups on all the high beta (more fun) stocks consider subscribing.
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