What a nasty week!! The two best things I did all week was sell 3/4 of my CMG puts Monday morning and tell us (me and you guys) to keep everything small till the FOMC. Next week is Quad witching, but more important is obviously FOMC. In case you missed it, I will not be trading or...
Last week here I said the path of least resistance was higher, but not to be too ambitious about how far it can go. I also tweeted out several times to “curb your enthusiasm on any rallies.” Indeed the market did go higher to hit exactly 211, but was met with a swift rejection. The […]
Open interest seriously told the story last week. It could not have been more accurate. Of course it’s hard to know which direction comes first, but it definitely gave opportunities (too many that I missed!). I don’t know if next week will be more of the same, but it will be likely for many of...
There was nothing easy about last week, but we played it pretty well given the high volatility (some of you better than me from my alerts – ahem’QQQ :-)). And we are going to have an awesome Monday morning thanks to CMG (I did say they would have to guide down – didn’t realize it would...
Last week here instead of just writing about what I expected from the market as a whole (since my expectations were of mostly a grind) I gave some stock ideas. All of the ones that triggered except for one reached at least its initial target (with room for more) and one is still on its […]
One month left!!! Last week was basically a waste of time. Took some profits from winners, added a couple things and mostly sat around bored. With one month left and volume likely to dry up toward Christmas, next week hopefully sees some better action. Plus the big anticipated ‘rate decision’ is coming this month. SPY:...
Last week was rather boring where the market remained in a very tight range. We managed to find a couple good gems, but really was a waste of a week. I imagine that range breaks next week and the path of least resistance is higher; however I think we need to be on the lookout...
Happy Thanksgiving! Here is a quick update on a few with open interest changes. Given the half day and light volume most of these will likely pin, but if we get a couple gap ups over their high calls we know there could be a winner. Remember that Friday will most likely be very very...
Last week here I was definitely leaning bearish and boy was I wrong. After the Monday afternoon strength I reassessed the evidence and flipped bullish by Tuesday morning. Not only was price invalidating my bearish thesis, but so was psychology as you can see with my comments to subscribers below. From there on, the week […]
Next week is a shortened week and there will be light volume and possibly a slow grind higher in SPX. We are coming off an awesome week so plan for next week is to keep it light in terms of starting swings, but definitely take opportunities where we see them in momentum movers. Next week...
Killer week! It just goes to show that letting go of ego is so important to trading. I came in bearish and had I stayed that way I would have been decimated. Instead we banked big time. Next week is a shortened week because Thursday is closed and Friday is a half day. That will...
Last week here I was neutral short term, but expecting pullbacks to be bought. Here is what I wrote: Main view for next week: I’m neutral as to whether we move higher, consolidate sideways or pull back. You may not find that helpful, but I’m not going to lie and tell you I have a strong […]
Last week was something to sit-up and take notice of. It was a definite sign that the rally from the September low was a bear market rally and not the resumption of the bullish trend since 2009. It is still too early to know, but as of now it is looking much more like it....
After an amazing streak, last week was rough. It happens. It is part of the game and now it’s time to shake it off and come back with a clear head so we can get back onto a winning streak. I read that the last time we had a fall similar to last week after...
Just kidding, I know the answer. Last week here, I was bullish overall, but biased for a minor pullback. However, I wrote “Although I am biased toward a minor pullback ensuing next week I am open to the possibility that it won’t take place. What would change my mind is a further rally above Friday’s high with internal […]
SICK SICK SICK week! Ok moving on. In a strong market similar to the last month, pins tend to get destroyed and price moves above the highest calls with strength (this happens the opposite way in a very weak market). As you may have noticed I have been less focused on pins and call resistance...
We have had an amazing month and I remember last weekend saying that gains that big will be harder to come by and yet we had an even better week last week. So I feel the need to remind myself mostly (but also you guys) that expecting such huge returns often leads to greed and...
Last week here, I put forth another case for the bulls after already being a bull for three straight weeks. That of course worked out very well. Last week I also made it very clear here and several times on twitter, that a weekly MACD cross has resulted in a higher close the following week 10 out […]
Killer week!!!! It’s been an amazing October. I’m just going to get right into the open interest for next week. The overall theme for these momentum stocks is to buy call options on pull-backs into support. Much of where support will be found will depend on the overall market in general, but below is a guide...
Last week I discussed that the weekly MACD bullish cross has left us higher 10 out of 10 times. Now that stat stands at 11 out of 11. It was a fun (and exhausting) week. I don’t think November is going to be straight up like October so we got our work cut out for...
Last week here (and for the last 3 weeks), I very clearly laid out a more bullish bias. Furthermore, I highlighted possible weakness Tuesday into Wednesday, but tweeted out during that weakness “but don’t forget to buy the dip.” I appreciate that so many followers of mine find my work helpful and want to know […]
Phenomenal week! Although for the second week in a row a lot of things did not pin, it didn’t stop us from being long the right things. Sometimes it’s just better not to go with the pin and instead just go with the chart. We have more earnings around the corner so as usual those graphs I won’t...
Spot on last week being on the bullish side. Last week was the second week in a row that seemed as if nobody was on the bullish page with me (just anecdotally through twitter). However, by the end of the week it seemed a lot of people had been converted. That typically spells trouble, but...
Last week here I outlined a bullish thesis and recommended getting long on dips at specific levels that were outlined. Then on Wednesday when SPX pulled back to 1995 I tweeted out this: It turned out that was indeed very good support and longs initiated there were handsomely rewarded. As a side note, I want new traders (or […]
Last week was tricky, something I had anticipated in last weekends post. One big thing that happened last week is many things failed to pin even though it was monthly OPEX. Notice last week for some stocks I didn’t trust that they would pin and went with the technical picture instead (SPY, FB, etc). This was...
Very challenging week. Honestly I think one of the most challenging parts for me was the amount of bearishness I was reading during the down days last week. I felt like the lone bull. It’s always hard to trust what you know when you see others smart people making logical points. In the end I...
Last week here, I laid out a compelling bullish case for the week and targeted the 200-201 SPY area. I said from there it was likely to stall and even more likely to pull-back. Stall it did, pull-back it did not. If you had the direction of the market correct last week, the opportunities were […]
Insanely great week! Nothing more to say about it then that, so let’s get onto next week. It’s monthly expiration so the open interest tends to stick better and not change as much throughout the week. We are also headed into earnings season, so for earnings plays I don’t comment on the open interest because...
We were completely in-tune with the market last week. I very clearly outlined the scenario to 200/201 level and it worked out beautifully. It even continued to my astonishment showing no signs of anything being given back, which is why we didn’t fight it. Where the market currently sits, makes things a bit trickier than...
Last week here I outlined a more bullish thesis and showed two separate open interest graphs for SPY, the quarterly and the weekly. The main theses was we would close above 192 on Wednesday (check), and that the best pin on Friday would be 195 (check). The path to getting those was surely not smooth or […]
Phenomenal ending to a challenging week. I admit it started out a bit rough, but I stuck to my guns, was open minded and it ended up being an awesome week. Over 1000% in a day is nothing to sneeze about! As I said on Friday the open interest suggests a bullish week ahead, but that was...
Insane week! I did say last week the best pin was 195. The path it took to get there though was definitely not anticipated. In the end it was a very successful week even though I think I need to start checking my hair for grays now. Onto next week. As of now the short-term...
Last week here I was more biased to the upside as long as SPY stayed above 195. Well it failed to stay above there and I tweeted an updated open interest that looked much less bullish, suggesting that 190 would be the next support. Buying a little ahead of that on Thursday proved to be […]
Disturbing week to say the least. Overall, the week went OK. I wish I had bought a bunch of bio puts Friday morning to change an ok week to a phenomenal week, but then that would have been too perfect right. Anyway, won some, lost some and moving on. I am going to post both the...
This market is definitely not letting up with the volatility. Although that makes things very challenging, you can see how it can also lead to enormous gains in a very short period of time with options. I will continue to concentrate on the high momentum stocks and indexes, but have some other gem set-ups below. Bottom line,...
Last week here, I discussed my bullish bias and that if SPY remained above 195 there was a good chance we would get to at least 200. That worked out perfectly as SPY hit 200 on Wednesday. I tweeted out Wednesday that my target had been hit and I had no expectations going into the […]
The volatility continues and as long as that is the case we will continue to play things with shorter time frames and through the larger movers. Last week was great. When we have weeks like that it’s important not to put all the money back to work and risk losing the profits made. This volatility...
Crushed last week! Now onto next week. We are still in an intermediate term downtrend and the odds of a V-shape rally to new highs are not great, but it is still possible we have another bounce coming very soon. Of note though (and this is just to keep in the back of our mind, not as a...
Last week here I showed the enormous amount of puts from 193 and below. I discussed how that is typically a bullish sign, but hard to trust in the recent environment. Then on Tuesday morning I tweeted an update that showed a bunch of calls from 200 on. In the end SPY pinned in between them […]
Quad witching coming right up! These past few weeks have been insane! Not the greatest start to the week, but the week ended much better. Volatility helps in that respect. Next week is monthly OPEX, therefore most of these open interest graphs will not change much. Let’s get right into it! SPY: As I said on...
Last week wore me out. Very happy Friday gave us some good trades. Staying afloat is major in this market. Anyway, the volatility is likely not over, partly because of the big FOMC decision next week. Given that, I’m going to continue with the same format that I have for the past several weeks. I will...
Last week here I went over the 2011 period, not as an analogue, but to demonstrate an outcome other than the V-bottoms we have become accustomed to. If you haven’t read it, I recommend that you take a look as there are many similarities between the 2011 correction and this current one. Again I don’t […]
Super tough and volatile week and yet profitable. This market is NOT easy, but look how so many of those option levels helped us navigate (i.e. the AMZN trade or GS if we had taken it). In this environment I can’t rely on the open interest as much, but they definitely are helping us know where...
Market definitely keeping us on our toes, but I’m loving the challenge. Not losing money in this environment is challenging enough so it’s awesome that we are profiting. The strategy for this next week is going to remain the same. We will concentrate on the momo’s and the indexes. Trying to find set-ups everywhere is...
Last week here I stressed that oversold can stay oversold and that I believed the market had not bottomed. I laid out the bullish and bearish arguments and it was clear that the bearish ones had more going for them. I also drew some comparisons to the 2014 October correction as an exercise that steep […]
Great great week. We waited for the right opportunity and when it came the returns were huge. A great reminder that sitting out when the risk/reward isn’t great pays forward. I understand it is frustrating sitting out when you see people on twitter saying they made this much and they caught this bottom etc. However, I...
One of the most insane weeks in months, perhaps years. I was very clear last week that I was not in the camp of an imminent bounce and that was key. By remaining on the sidelines we were actually able to catch the main thrust of the bounce. Now the question becomes, is it a...
Last week here I discussed a more bullish bias with the caveat that there was one big strike at on the SPY open interest at 205 and price could get there or undercut it by a bit. I also said that it would be a great place to buy the dip. I was wrong and […]
Hands down bears won last week. The move lower is not over. Whether we flush first and then move higher or we bounce and then move lower is not something anyone can predict; however, we can and will play this volatility. There is no doubt the market is oversold, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market...
Whoa! Didn’t see that coming. Open interest got smacked by the selling. The last time that happened on a monthly OPEX was October 2014 (which provided information that I carried forward into last week). On Thursday, after the failure of price to get back above 205 a second time, I stopped trying to catch the bounce....
Last week here I wrote: “I am still not convinced the market has bottomed, but overall my main bias for next week leans bullish” and gave a guide on SPY and what to expect (how to play it). Below is what I wrote: “Here is a guide for SPY next week: SPY below 208 and not able to […]
AMAZING WEEK!!!!! We nailed pretty much every market turn to the upside and downside AND had huge winners in individual stocks. Next week is monthly OPEX so most of the open interest will not change during the week. SPY: Overall this is a bullish open interest graph. Having said that there is not much put...
Superb week, which is wonderful and should be acknowledged, but now back to work so we can continue the streak. Monthly OPEX in general tends to be bullish, but that is not something I would base my analysis on. However, it’s helpful to know because it coincides with a bullish open interest. As I said in the...
Last week here I wrote “Taking the open interest at face value first suggests that price will continue to gravitate to the 210/211 level and second, suggests a more neutral to bearish week is upon us.” I also outlined several thorough scenarios of what to expect based on where price goes and if you go […]
Last week the game plan was right on point, but as you saw it was extremely difficult to trade and required lots of patience. This trading environment is so tricky and it’s teaching me/us the importance of sticking to the plan because they really do work. As I mentioned last week, I don’t think the bottom...
What a draining week. The open interest definitely nailed the outcome, but man did they make it so hard to hold those puts after that gap up Wednesday. It really does just reaffirm that it’s best to stick to the plan because more times than not it works and over time that averages to mostly...
Last week the open interest pointed to a bullish week with a potential target for SPY 210 and then 211. That worked, but it definitely wasn’t easy. Earnings are winding down now so the open interest for the momentum stocks will become more relevant again. Also, based on the decent high strikes of puts or...
It was correct to be bullish biased last week with a buy the dip mentality. It didn’t lead to a whole lot gains with such small movements and being too early, but so be it. In the open interest post I highlight that next week appears to have a neutral to bearish bias. As you...
Last week here I wrote that I am “still not convinced that the lows for the year were in and after last week am more convinced that they are not. Having said that, I do think the market will bounce first before moving lower.” That worked out well and my view has not changed. Having already bounced […]
Going into last week I stated that there was limited upside due to the open interest and that turned out to be correct. I did not however think we would get all the way down to 207.5, but I did say that a break of 209 and that was the next likely target. Where I...
Overall fantastic week even though it ended poorly. ‘You win some, you lose some’ works as long as we win more than we lose which we did :-). Next time I have huge gains like I have in the last two weeks I just got take a couple days off! Anyway, let’s get to next...
Last week here I stated that the SPY open interest suggested “that the market will be rangebound next week, with very little room to move higher, but room to give back some of last weeks gains.” I also thought that shallow dips would be bought, but laid out a game plan in case that failed to […]
Last week here I wrote that my bias was up and there was a good chance SPY would find its way to the 210 level. I had not anticipated that it would continue higher when I originally wrote the post, but did update my views on twitter mid week. First, I cautioned any short attempts by […]
What an insanely busy and good week. Good feeling to be on the right side of the trade. Next week we still have big earnings, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market will have some big moves. In fact, typically after a move similar to what we just got there is either some consolidation or...
EPIC EPIC EPIC week! I had no idea we were going to put in a bounce like that last week, but good thing is I didn’t need to know to benefit. I had the direction right and that made all the difference. Let’s get right into next week. SPY: The open interest suggests that next week...
Last week here I discussed my bias being up and that if we were to get a dip below 205 it was a gift and to buy it. That turned out to be very sound advice even with all the volatility. About a month ago I warned of an impending small correction, which as you can see […]
I barely remember what my bias even was last week with all that ended up happening, but it turned out pretty great anyway. As I said last week I am not convinced the lows are in. I still think we could see another flush down, but we will get there when the time is right....
Killer week we had. Honestly, there is no way I could have traded the way we did without knowing open interest. Let’s hope the volatility stays. Next week is monthly expiration and just as a reminder, the open interest changes less (if at all) during monthly expiration. Let’s hop right into next week. SPY: Here’s...
The theme I outlined last week based on the open interest was bearish and that turned out to be correct. Most of it happened overnight and Monday so the rest of the week ended up being pretty slow. It was also a good demonstration of the importance of when to trade and when not to. Trading only...
Well I’ve been saying I was smelling a correction around the corner. Now we are in correction territory and navigating through it. There is no way to know how we will open Monday morning which is why I decided not to keep any SPY options over the weekend. With all the uncertainty over the weekend...
For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a looming small correction. Last weekend here I was bearish biased and that turned out to be correct, but if you hadn’t come into Monday short it was definitely difficult to play. I would be surprised if the low for 2015 was in; however, my main […]
Last weekend here I was biased toward a bounce, but after further weakness. That plan was shattered right from the get-go with a gap up Monday morning. Knowing I was wrong had me quickly adjust my expectations and for the most part sit on my hands. With all the Greek news, potential for window dressing, as well […]
Last week right from the get-go we opened around 212 SPY. That threw things off from what my bias had been and kept me very patient rather than forcing trades. I had outlined last weekend that I knew when I was wrong and that I would have to change my approach. All in, the information...
Last week was tough and really there weren’t may trades to be had. Next week presents another challenge in that there is likely going to be some Greek news (perhaps over the weekend) and how the market will react to that is a total guess. Also, it’s the end of the quarter and there is...
Last week here I wrote that I expected a dip toward the beginning of the week and that it was a buy for a rip into the end of the week. I also stated that I thought come Friday or Monday we would begin to sell off again which would start a larger correction (more […]
Monthly expirations are so awesome. They give so much information to help us make (or not make trades). Last week played out exactly how I thought it would. Now comes the harder part because although I still have a similar bias going forward (that we correct soon); I may need to adjust my timing. I don’t...
Nailed last week perfectly! As you know I had expected a correction (rather than a tiny pull-back) to begin Friday. We did move lower Friday, but I didn’t see the kind of action that would lead me to believe the correction has begun. We are not overbought, there was no buying climax, and many individual...
Last week worked out very nicely for us knowing where bounces would likely come in and that the market would likely continue to gravitate to the 210 pin. Next week is monthly OPEX so you know the ranges don’t often move to much throughout the week. As much as we can we will take advantage...
Great week last week as we were as prepared as can be in a market that is unpredictable. For the last couple of weeks I have been discussing what I think is looming and I am still in that frame of mind. Before I go into it, let me preface it with I will remain...
Last week here I outlined levels of importance and what to expect based on those levels. That worked out perfectly. I said below SPY 209.5 odds increase of a touch to 207 (check). Then I said above 210 and good chance we see 212 (check). Then I said that we could easily keep gravitating to 210 all […]
Last week here, I wrote the importance of the 210 level, which did hold during the first dip of the week. Later in the week I updated the open interest over twitter and said that 209 was becoming more relevant and in fact price reached a low of 208.98 and held. We are now back in […]
Open interest was a fantastic guide for pretty much everything last week. One of the best uses of open interest that people fail to see is that it can prevent you from getting into stocks that technically look good, but their open interest doesn’t give it a favorable risk/reward ratio. Just as an example, both...
The theme I had going into last week was that bonds (TLT) would drop and financials would catch a bid. That played out very nicely. I also outlined what is potentially setting up in the next couple weeks. Next week I intend to closely monitor all the correlations that would give us clues to see...
It’s sarcasm, calm down. I couldn’t think of (and wasn’t interested) in trying to be creative for my title this week. Anyway, as there isn’t much new to report I will make this quick and easy. Overbought/Oversold: There is very little interesting here, but will update it for regular readers. SPX stocks at 20-day highs: Completely […]
Last week was uneventful in the markets, hence why I had few trades. The pinning seemed to work very well though on most of the stocks. Now we enter June. Let’s get right into it. SPY: This is considered bullish as long as 210 holds. If price falls below 210 I think we could easily...
Once again there isn’t much of anything new to report since the week pretty much ended where it started. We had a few good plays last week, but were mostly was hands off. Next week I believe there are more opportunities. Regarding the overall market you can see what I wrote in the open interest...
What an uneventful week except for having some nice profits on Thursday. Last expiration week for May coming up. SPY: I wish this told us more, but really the only thing it tells us is that if SPY can finally breakout it likely gets stopped in it’s track at 215. Other than that we need...
Last weekend I had a ‘slightly’ bullish bias and it turns out we went ‘slightly’ higher, albeit most of the gains took place early in the week. Overall for next week there really isn’t much more for me to say than what I have been saying on twitter all last week. We are consolidating at the highs,...
Last week here, I candidly admitted that I had no real bias coming into the week. That changed Tuesday morning at around 10:30, right about the time the market rallied higher never to look back. I even sent out a tweet right before the rally began to highlight what I was seeing. Overbought/Oversold: I […]
Monthly opex over and we are back to weeklies. Was an interesting week with finally some movement after holding 210 for a few days. The big question of course is does the breakout hold. Because we are back to weeklies there will be more open interest changes during the week then there was last week....
I’m glad I came into the week without a bias because I never would have been able to predict how the week played out. It also allowed me to be flexible and cover my SPY puts at pretty much the perfect time. Although we are at all time highs, it’s very hard to be super...
Important Lessons From Last Week – Delta Hedging & Options
Last week was a good example of what can happen when price begins to fall through heavy put strikes and something that short term traders should be aware of even if they don’t trade options. Last week here, I posted the open interest for the start of the week which had a more bullish look […]
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