I’m back. Thank you all for the support and congratulatory comments. Not such a nice welcome back from the market, but at least the big FOMC and Brexit is now done (well the vote not the aftermath). Some of you will recall that a couple months ago I continently said that it is rare for...
Hi everyone! Thank you all for the support and comments! The wedding turned out to be AMAZING. It was supposed to be on the beach, but that day there was a storm that came through and it had to be moved indoors, but it was with glass windows/doors and the ocean was still right behind...
Awesome week. The end wasn’t as great, but if you think about all the trades we took it proves two points. 1) Take some off the table when profits are there and 2) leave some on so that you can continue to profit if the stock isn’t done. Easier said than done sometimes, but as...
Recall that last week I described the scenario we saw for months when SPX hung around 2050 before finally breaking into a new range and mentioned that we could easily see something very similar around 2100. So far that seems to be the case and with two big events over the next two weeks (FOMC & Brexit)...
Once again we find ourselves at that 2100 level. Remember how long we stayed at the 2050 level. We could be headed into a similar period of chop around 2100 for a couple weeks until the June FOMC and Brexit is over; however, if that doesn’t end up happening then I think for now we...
My new framed term BEFD worked extremely well last week. We had some really nice plays despite Friday being a dud day. I’m a bit torn about the next couple of weeks in that it’s possible the rally has reached exhaustion and is ready to pullback to shake out some bulls. On the other hand...
Buy-Every-F*****g-Dip Last week here I proposed that the chop would likely continue and that any gains that came before better oversold readings would likely not hold. The caveat was if we closed and had follow through over 2084. As you know the premise was wrong and the exception instead came into fruition – which hopefully […]
The chop zone is finally over. Of course it happens after OPEX, which we had thought was a possibility anyway. So does the market now finally get over 2100 and then possibly make all time highs? I would say yes that is likely, but I’m sure there will be some chop and backtesting along the...
Last week was great. I didn’t think SPX would make it over 2084, but being flexible shows that it didn’t really matter what I thought. We are about to enter the summer months so we need to keep in mind that things will be slower (which is hard to believe) on many days. That also means...
Last week was tiring and challenging, but we totally nailed it. Now that OPEX is over maybe we can get some real price discovery – meaning break the chop zone the market cannot seem to get out of. As a side note, keep in mind that as next week is coming to an end things will...
Last week played out exactly how we anticipated. SPY vacillated through 205, but always found it’s way back. In no way was it easy to play, but we navigated it amazingly well. The chop range is now a bit wider with SPX 2025 being the low end and 2084 being the high end. Now that OPEX...
Last week here I discussed that the market likely has not seen the lows of this cycle and any news gains would likely be given back. I am still in that camp. I also said that a close above 2083 would make things more bullish. What I should have said is a close with follow […]
The chop continues. It definitely hasn’t been easy to navigate, but we have luckily found several spots of opportunity. Less is more until things become more resolved. Next week is monthly OPEX so the open interest tends to change less throughout the week since these are more popular options than weeklies. The close on Friday...
Currently SPX is trading in the range of 2039 to 2084. For now it has had a failed breakout over 2083 and unless it can close above 2084 (and follow through) then we assume SPX will either stay in the range of 2039 to 2084 or move below 2039 and create a new range. I...
Apologies ahead of time, but this post will be brief due to my best friends birthday and Mothers Day. Last week here I said that if Friday (4/29) was a reversal and the market traded higher, it would likely be given back and that below 2052 opened the door to more selling. I also highlighted support […]
A very choppy week that ended above the key support of 2052. At this point, taken together with the open interest, the bulls have the short term edge, but the intermediate is still neutral to slightly bearish. One of the support levels I outlined in last weeks post was 2039 and it held insanely well on...
Well I said I expected a choppy week. The entire week was a very very slow grind lower until magically the 205 SPY calls were saved. There is no way to know if Friday will get follow through or not. The fact that the momentum stocks were so strong definitely makes it seem plausible, yet...
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 5/2/16 As I said last week, it’s time to begin thinking about selling the rip and not just buying. Even though I had that written and had it in mind, it was much harder to do last week given all the disconnects […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 5/2/16 Volatility is back – at least for the time being. We knew at the start of the week that there was SPY 210 and 215 high calls. The 210’s never closed and last week SPY got close but was never able to […]
Last week here, I discussed the bulls having the edge, but that any edge they had would likely be limited and possibly given back at the end of the week (I mentioned to look for clues in the SPY open interest). I also mentioned possible rotation into the QQQ’s. I was right about the former […]
Volatility is back – at least for the time being. We knew at the start of the week that there was SPY 210 and 215 high calls. The 210’s never closed and last week SPY got close but was never able to even make it above 210. Even though we knew that was a possibliity, last...
As I said last week, it’s time to begin thinking about selling the rip and not just buying. Even though I had that written and had it in mind, it was much harder to do last week given all the disconnects (well isn’t it always harder then it would seem?). Now that we are entering...
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/25/16 It was a very disconnected week which made picking the right trades challenging. All three days, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday were fake-outs if you will. Luckily we remained level headed and watched the internals. Even though that is what made things confusing, […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/25/16 Once again as extreme as it may seem the lack of selling pressure continues to support the bull thesis and thus buying the dip is more attractive then shorting. With that being said, last week at least brought in some selling […]
Last week here I made the case for higher prices, but that they would likely either be slow or hampered. Indeed prices rose, but then were hampered. The week was no doubt challenging as there were may disconnects that began Wednesday and went on through the rest of the week. Over TWTR and Stocktwits on Wednesday […]
It was a very disconnected week which made picking the right trades challenging. All three days, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday were fake-outs if you will. Luckily we remained level headed and watched the internals. Even though that is what made things confusing, it saved us from trying to get short. As I mentioned over and over...
Once again as extreme as it may seem the lack of selling pressure continues to support the bull thesis and thus buying the dip is more attractive then shorting. With that being said, last week at least brought in some selling in individual sectors and momentum stocks that suggest cracks are beginning to show up....
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/18/16 Two weeks in a row the market gave us good opportunity in the beginning of the week, which we took advantage of, and then just sucked premium the rest of it. There is no denying that there is a lack of […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/18/16 I have two examples of why the market is strong and why for now buying the dip needs to be more prevalent on our minds than shorting. Last week many of the momo stocks and some ETF’s that I casually watch […]
In last weeks post here, the main take away was that there would likely be a break of either SPX 2040 or 2070, but that neither would likely lead to a large move. I also mentioned some breadth divergences that were beginning to creep in, but were not yet at a point that shorting was encouraged. As […]
I have two examples of why the market is strong and why for now buying the dip needs to be more prevalent on our minds than shorting. Last week many of the momo stocks and some ETF’s that I casually watch got to their high strike calls. Meaning the price slammed right into or went...
Two weeks in a row the market gave us good opportunity in the beginning of the week, which we took advantage of, and then just sucked premium the rest of it. There is no denying that there is a lack of any significant selling pressure right now (more on that in the set-up post) and...
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/11/16 The market has basically been in a range of 2040 to 2070 for two weeks. You could say it’s consolidating gains and creating a bull flag, but for now (and in the short term) I am leaning more bearish than bullish. […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/11/16 Well the weak wasn’t as calm as I expected even though it basically closed in the same place as it did on Tuesday. I can’t argue that there was lots of movement to be played though. Next week is monthly OPEX […]
From Convergex: Looking at every time average sector correlations have dropped below 70% – 6 times in total since the beginning of 2010 – the average one month forward return is 0.6%. While that is lower than the 0.9% averaged compounded monthly return since the start of the period, the volatility of returns ranges from a […]
The market has basically been in a range of 2040 to 2070 for two weeks. You could say it’s consolidating gains and creating a bull flag, but for now (and in the short term) I am leaning more bearish than bullish. The low of last week was 2033 so that is basically the short term...
Well the weak wasn’t as calm as I expected even though it basically closed in the same place as it did on Tuesday. I can’t argue that there was lots of movement to be played though. Next week is monthly OPEX and usually the open interest doesn’t shift as much as it does for weeklies,...
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/4/16 Awesome week! For now the bulls are still in charge, but at this point there is likely to be limited upside before either a pullback or consolidation. Earnings are just around the corner and until they get underway, dips will very […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/4/16 Last week SPX remained above 2022, the level I said kept the ball in the bull court. Once price got over 2055 we knew that the bulls took price from neutral/bullish to bullish. There is still room higher before larger resistance […]
Last week here I laid out the case for the bulls, again (seems crazy to me too). I also talked about the possibility of a performance chase into the quarters end. In other words, I made it pretty clear that as long as SPX remained above 2022 to be a buyer. The bulls indeed still […]
Awesome week! For now the bulls are still in charge, but at this point there is likely to be limited upside before either a pullback or consolidation. Earnings are just around the corner and until they get underway, dips will very likely be buyable. Let’s get straight into the open interest. General note for the...
Last week SPX remained above 2022, the level I said kept the ball in the bull court. Once price got over 2055 we knew that the bulls took price from neutral/bullish to bullish. There is still room higher before larger resistance steps in, but any further highs next week will likely be muted. The first...
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 3/28/16. One of the hardest things to do as an options trader is not chase breakups that technically look great. Often traders concentrate just on making money and forget that not losing money is more important to survival; and as we know, […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 3/28/16. Good week given the opportunities that we were actually given. One important take away is how patience was rewarded. The start to the week I kept preaching not to chase. Options are not friendly to a still market and especially one […]
Last week here, I outlined reasons why there was likely more downside than upside to be had last week. In the end, there wasn’t as much downside as I had anticipated, but anyone that chased what looked like a breakout early in the week likely ended the week in disappointment. From last week: “In sum, based on the […]
Good week given the opportunities that we were actually given. One important take away is how patience was rewarded. The start to the week I kept preaching not to chase. Options are not friendly to a still market and especially one that suddenly pulls back. Although we only came away with small profits, I’m pretty...
One of the hardest things to do as an options trader is not chase breakups that technically look great. Often traders concentrate just on making money and forget that not losing money is more important to survival; and as we know, options have no mercy. In some regard, even though last week was only minimally profitable,...
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 3/21/16. Last week I had a very clear bias as to where the market was likely headed. Next week isn’t as clear cut. I think there is still more upside in this current cycle as breadth has kept up very well with […]
This was one of two premium posts for members prior to week starting 3/21/16. Last week the open interest saved us from getting long some of the momo’s that looked like they were going to break out. Sometimes the open interest is just a way to assess risk to reward. With SPY, it went ex-dividend […]
Last week here I clearly laid out a bullish scenario backed by solid reasoning. I summed up my thoughts with this: In sum, current breadth and the weekly MACD cross suggest further upside next week. Given the market is overbought it may pause or slightly pull-back, but the evidence at hand supports buying a dip or consolidation. With […]
Last week the open interest saved us from getting long some of the momo’s that looked like they were going to break out. Sometimes the open interest is just a way to assess risk to reward. With SPY, it went ex-dividend and was left with the high calls at 205 and 206. SPY closed at...
Last week I had a very clear bias as to where the market was likely headed. Next week isn’t as clear cut. I think there is still more upside in this current cycle as breadth has kept up very well with price. However, I do believe that there is a shakeout coming before higher prices...
Last week here I made the case for the bulls and summed up my post with this “In sum, the expansion in breadth with price supports further upside over the next few weeks and suggests taking on a buy the dip mentality. However, the current overbought levels and technical resistance may lead to a pullback or […]
Fairly volatile week. In the end, the bulls had the edge and the dips were bought, as I mentioned was the bias going into the week. We were very patient and very disciplined – thus, rewarded. Next week is monthly OPEX so the majority of the open interest will not change and will have more...
Last week once again proves that patience is really key to profits. Thanks by the way for those that directly contacted me to share how well you did last week. I am very pleased. Next week is a VERY heavy week. There is the BOJ, FOMC and it’s OPEX. Furthermore, although this seems silly, college...
This was one of two premium posts last weekend for members. Last week once again proves that patience is really key to profits. Thanks by the way for those that directly contacted me to share how well you did last week. I am very pleased. Next week is a VERY heavy week. There is the […]
This was one of two premium posts last weekend for members. Fairly volatile week. In the end, the bulls had the edge and the dips were bought, as I mentioned was the bias going into the week. We were very patient and very disciplined – thus, rewarded. Next week is monthly OPEX so the majority […]
Last week here I showed why bulls were in charge and described that there could be a pullback in the short term (that should be bought), but that if price got over SPY 197 then shorting should be avoided and price would likely see 200 very quickly. The exception ended up the rule last week. […]
Last week I posted three scenario’s and of course the least preferable one took place, which meant we didn’t have much opportunity to buy the dip. In the end it didn’t matter and we were able to find some gems that provided nice returns. Lately I have really been trying to stress patience and practice it myself....
As of now the bulls have the edge. The market is in a tough spot because going long at these levels doesn’t offer great risk to reward and yet shorting too early (especially with options) leads to pain. Going out essentially flat with a couple longer term swings feels the most comfortable and gives us...
Last week here I discussed that bulls had the edge, but that neither bulls or bears should get too enthusiastic about breakouts/breakdowns. That was the case up until Thursday, where SPY was set to break the 194 level for a third time. At that point shorting the rip was no longer appealing and instead going with […]
Overall I believe that March has more upside to it; however the timing is where it gets tricky. Next week the more favorable scenario is for price to either consolidate below 1950 or even better pullback to the 1900 level or even slightly below. Should price hold above 1960 then their exists a high probability that...
Closing the week pretty much flat really seemed like the best way to go. Anything other than that just seemed like guessing to me. SPX got to a 20-day high last week and currently the bulls do have the edge despite the Friday close. There are tons of support levels below, namely 1942 (Friday’s close), 1930...
Last week here I showed how split traders were as to what was next (not surprising), but offered levels to watch to help dictate your week. I said “A gap open over 1865 that is not filled would increase the odds of a continued rally.” That coupled with the SPY open interest having heavy 190 puts […]
That gap up Monday morning combined with the SPY open interest was enough to let us know the market was probably not going back down and would close over 190 by Friday. It’s still a very split market with not all stocks rallying when the market does, which makes sense given the market is still in...
Next week has a neutral bias to it that includes both a little lower and higher. We know where the market is going to find heavy resistance because of the open interest, but we don’t know how it will play out. There are some clues that I will point out below, but for the most...
As I said in the open interest post, there is no consensus on how the market may open Tuesday. A gap down, would certainly be bearish, whereas a gap up isn’t necessarily bullish unless it can hold and follow through. Recall just a couple weeks ago Friday closed on the highs and the then Monday’s...
I took a poll on Twitter asking do we open higher or lower on Tuesday. The results were exactly split 50/50. What does this tell us? No one has a clue. What’s interesting is last week, despite the insane moves, lots of things ended up pinning. I’ve noticed that pinning tends to work when the...
Last week I titled my post Was Friday’s Bullish Candle a Trap? I was of course referring to the huge rally on Friday 1/29. Now we know the answer. Yes, it obviously was because the only day that went higher last week was Monday. From there on the market took back all of 1/29 gains […]
I don’t even know how to recap the week. It was all over the place, but of course, in general is was once again bearish – the 2016 theme so far. For the most part the momo stocks had been holding up fairly well given the rest of the market, but no longer. Last week...
I’m still in awe of how much LNKD fell on Friday. This is a huge message to traders, especially ones that trade the big momentum names. It’s time to sell all rips. Quality stocks (the more boring ones) and some sector rotation ones can be bought on dips and the growth ones are to be...
Fun times. Definitely a very challenging environment; but rising to the occasion can be very profitable. As of now the path of least resistance seems higher (with the caveat that next week must have follow through). I don’t believe a bull market is resuming. Thus, although we will concentrate on longs, I will be sure...
Last week here I laid out my thesis for why I was more bullish biased and the importance of 1887. Ironically, even with my bullish bias, I pretty much benefitted more from shorting the first few days of the week and didn’t get long till Thursday. It just goes to show that as much as I […]
Crazy week, challenging week, overall profitable week! There is not much I have to say below as I said most of it in the open interest section. Right now we assume higher as long as we see follow through with price and breadth. SPX levels of resistance: 1944, 1950, 1960, 1984. A pullback to 1924...
Last week I titled my post Why Friday Afternoon Was a Good Time to Buy and Pyschology. I’m pretty sure that title nailed it as Friday was a good time to buy (at least for the gap up and then the end of the week), but you definitely needed to check your emotions in order to survive […]
What we learned to rely on during the bullish trend is over. We really do need to reset our minds to focus on selling stocks into resistance and during counter trend rallies not getting too bullish. I understand people are excited about the current rally and it’s potential, but all it is right now is a...
Most of us love the markets cause we like a good challenge. The market is not letting us down in that sense. Getting long last Friday was the correct play, but profits had to be taken quick because the selling definitely wasn’t done. After getting back bearish we then had to switch again. The good news...
Last week here I was very clear that our market was no longer one you blindly buy the dip into, that the rules have changed, and that to survive you would need to adapt pronto. I further went on to describe that we were likely trading in a bear market, which I had also suggested and wrote […]
Last week did some serious damage to the market and probably to many psyche’s. I know a lot of people got very hurt and I am super grateful that I was able to figure out what was going on and be on the correct side. This market is anything buy easy. The volatility is great...
In my opinion we nailed last week. In one of the largest drawdowns in this bull market we were 1) on the correct side and 2) didn’t get trapped into buying every dip. That to me is a win. I know for a fact that had we been playing the buy the dip game all week...
Last week here I discussed the possibility of a buying opportunity as things were getting close to oversold and the open interest favored buying the dip. BOY WAS I WRONG! After things started to really deteriorate Tuesday I started to wake up to the fact that this wasn’t the normal get a bit over sold […]
Stocks drop for 5 days straight, Happy New Year folks!!!! LOL. I was definitely on the wrong side at the start of the week with a BTD mentality. Luckily I saw the light quickly and adapted. When so much of the open interest is not working, it’s always a big clue. As I said last...
It’s been quite the week. I’m pretty sure nobody (including myself) expected that type of start to the year. Regardless, as traders it doesn’t really matter as long as we can align ourselves with the correct side, which we did mid-week. Although the market is oversold based on what oversold has looked like for the last few...
New year, new trends, new opportunities. Of course the market is just going to continue from where it left off, but since we measure trends and out-performers (i.e. NFLX, AMZN) /under-performers (i.e. anything energy related) often by years, we will begin to see new ones emerge. What comes to mind in that sense is opportunity! […]
Very nice end to a very challenging year. With a new year will come new trends and out-perfomers/under-performers, but they will likely take a little time to develop. In that sense, whatever happens next week may not necessarily be the gauge to the rest of the year. Although most people will be back at their...
Welcome to 2016! 2015 ended essentially flat and I am happy to be moving on from it and hope we soon start to trend again. New year, new opportunities, and hopefully new trading environment. Let’s get right into it. SPY: On the surface this is bullish and once again we start the week with the...
Last week here I mentioned the positives and negatives demonstrating that there was better chances of a bounce early in the week due to seasonality, oversold conditions, and the VIX expiration on Wednesday morning. I posted the open interest to show that the upside could be limited by the high calls at 206. The week pretty […]
Last week the VIX and SPY expiration led us the right way. Market bounced and then basically stalled the rest of the week. Also pretty much all the momentum stocks followed their open interest by not exceeding their high call or put strikes. That led to a great play with GS so with next week...
Last week price got the bounce I mentioned due to being oversold and the VIX expiration, but price couldn’t rally much from there. Next week we know will be super slow so any opportunities we take are going to be for short-term plays. The year is almost over and there could be some funds readjusting....
Market completely lame and choppy until the last 15 minutes when it appears Santa may be on his way. Currently futures moving higher as I write this and it seems as of now a good sign. For now I think we can continue to see rallying especially given everything I wrote this weekend. If that...
Last week here I anticipated a likely bounce before the Fed to SPY 205. It overachieved that. I also highlighted the risk of a drop due to all the puts and delta hedging. In no way was last week easy to play and I missed a lot of it being on a trip and then […]
Only two more weeks left. Remember next week is shortened so options should be cheaper (meaning don’t overpay as if it was a Monday), but you also have much less time for things to work. I outlined most of SPY in the overall market. Here is what it has going for it: Seasonality is strong...
What a week! Granted I missed a lot of it (probably for the best), but we did go back up to the area around 205 by Fed, which I had anticipated well. The events after FOMC were a whole another story. I imagine it was a very tough week for anyone there the entire week,...
June Swoon or to the Moon
Last week here I took a spin on BTFD and termed BEFD (buy every f’n dip). Is there a difference? Probably not, but I was trying to emphasize that if the market dips, but stays above 2084, it will probably rip back up. That happened 4 our of 4 times last week. At this point […]
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